Comletely OT, anyone trying to buy a car these days? HOLY S***!

[Doctor Jeff]

Nope, I bought my FTR1200 in Muskego, WI (about 10 miles from where I live), which is just over the county line, from Milwaukee County, in Waukesha County, at Indian Motorcycle of Metro Milwaukee.

How’s the Dave’s Guitars branch in Milwaukee? Never been there—in fact, I’ve only been to Milwaukee twice. I think they get a lot more snow than La Crosse, which was a good reason to stay out west.

[AlsoRan]

Companies increasingly seem to want to sell leaseplans rather than cars; AFAIK those typically include an extended warranty for the usual initial duration (after you're expected to trade in). My car comes from such a scheme, through a dealer specialising in selling this kind of vehicles (for the VAG group).

I don't know if it is true, but for many years it was understood that dealers really did not make a whole lot of profit in the price of the car. But, rather made their money (at least here in the USA) on the warranties, kickback from banks for financing, and of course, various fees and any maintenance that they perform.

So my understanding is that it is comparable to Playstation PS4 consoles. The company does not make much profit on the sale of each individual console, but they make big money on associated games, subscriptions and plans.

[EllenGtrGrl]

How’s the Dave’s Guitars branch in Milwaukee? Never been there—in fact, I’ve only been to Milwaukee twice. I think they get a lot more snow than La Crosse, which was a good reason to stay out west.

I haven't been to the Milwaukee branch store yet (nor the Madison branch store). I should pay it a visit sometime, but I REALLY need to put the brakes on my guitar spending (especially since in the past 3 plus months, I bought a Gibson J-35, an Eastman 380CE Pisano, and a Fender American Performer Telecaster). The last time I visited Dave's, was in 2011, at their LaCrosse store, which is a bit of a haul for me, since it's on the other side of the state. I've been going to Dave's off and on since 1990 (when they were at their original LaCrosse store, which was quite a bit smaller than the current store in LaCrosse [which they moved to in 1991 or 1992]). My main gigging guitar for the 90s (a 1980 Gibson Howard Roberts Fusion) was bought from Dave's in 1992.

F.Y.I. - La Crosse gets just as much snow as we do (well, maybe not all of the time, since they don't have to contend with lake effect snow [from Lake Michigan] like we do [and Buffalo, NY gets even more of than we do, courtesy of Lake Erie] ).

[RJVB]

I don't know if it is true, but for many years it was understood that dealers really did not make a whole lot of profit in the price of the car. But, rather made their money (at least here in the USA) on the warranties, kickback from banks for financing, and of course, various fees and any maintenance that they perform.

Definitely true for dealers here, who are also often obliged to have a certain amount of models on their floor which they know they won't ever sell (a reason why the number of Moto Guzzi dealers has been dwindling, for instance).

But I really meant car companies. Here at least it's them who do the large majority of advertising in the (non-local) media. I cannot recall having seen or heard an ad that mentioned the actual price of a model, it's always "from XXX€/month" with the initial downpayment and the shown model's total/final price somewhere in the very fine print.

F.Y.I. - La Crosse gets just as much snow as we do (well, maybe not all of the time, since they don't have to contend with lake effect snow [from Lake Michigan] like we do [and Buffalo, NY gets even more of than we do, courtesy of Lake Erie] ).

Don't worry, that'll soon get better if we don't all buy electric vehicles now

[Spook410]

Inflation is too much demand chasing too few goods. There is also a big psychological element once it gets rolling. Dangerous stuff.

I think the money supply, while important to the discussion, is a global consideration when talking the US dollar. And things like how many 20 dollar bills are being printed is even less a good metric. The kind of thing politicians use to fool us. Not where I would start. I'm thinking our debt to GDP ratio is more interesting.

This is for 2020. Think it's a bit worse now. And yes. We are not well governed and it's not going to end well. At least Manchin shut some of the insanity down.



Source: United States Gross Federal Debt to GDP - 2021 Data - 2022 Forecast

[RJVB]

I think the money supply, while important to the discussion, is a global consideration when talking the US dollar. And things like how many 20 dollar bills are being printed is even less a good metric. The kind of thing politicians use to fool us. Not where I would start. I'm thinking our debt to GDP ratio is more interesting.

How are interest rates on savings accounts across the pond? Here money is so worthless that many banks are using *negative* interest rates; the only savings account where I still get some actual interest here in France is a 20+ yo one that I cannot credit anymore, and can only liquidate in full. In the Netherlands it's been almost that long that income tax considers you get an impossible interest rate (used to be 4%) over your savings. IOW, all is done to make people spend their money rather than save it.

[Doctor Jeff]

Inflation is too much demand chasing too few goods. There is also a big psychological element once it gets rolling. Dangerous stuff.

I think the money supply, while important to the discussion, is a global consideration when talking the US dollar. And things like how many 20 dollar bills are being printed is even less a good metric. The kind of thing politicians use to fool us. Not where I would start. I'm thinking our debt to GDP ratio is more interesting.

This is for 2020. Think it's a bit worse now. And yes. We are not well governed and it's not going to end well. At least Manchin shut some of the insanity down.



Source: United States Gross Federal Debt to GDP - 2021 Data - 2022 Forecast

There’s an article by Paul Krugman pointing out that, IIRC, Britain has had debt>GDP for half of the last 70 years. What’s important isn’t how big the debt is, it’s your ability to service it. Our debt—only 13% of which is owned to foreigners btw—is generally bought and invested in products that actually make money for us.

BTW, our WW2 debt was this high if not higher, and we have never repaid it. We grew ourselves out of it.

That said, I’m not in favor of infinite deficit spending, but A) let’s be real, after decades of people crying The sky is falling, it hasn’t fallen. Deficit spending is not taken seriously by anyone, least of all “conservatives”. And B) the reason for the recent increase was to stave off a worldwide depression. Even Milton Friedman wrote in his PhD thesis (or first book, I forget which) that the depression was caused by too tight a money supply. In a demand crisis, you stimulate the economy.

[RJVB]

That said, I’m not in favor of infinite deficit spending, but A) let’s be real, after decades of people crying The sky is falling, it hasn’t fallen.

Fun fact: in its default setting the Linux kernel has a similar approach to allocating memory: if an application asks for memory, just grant the request (almost) no matter how large. That rarely causes issues, somehow. For the general user, that is... the reality can be quite different for application developers

[Stringswinger]

That said, I’m not in favor of infinite deficit spending, but A) let’s be real, after decades of people crying The sky is falling, it hasn’t fallen. Deficit spending is not taken seriously by anyone, least of all “conservatives”. And B) the reason for the recent increase was to stave off a worldwide depression. Even Milton Friedman wrote in his PhD thesis (or first book, I forget which) that the depression was caused by too tight a money supply. In a demand crisis, you stimulate the economy.

All pyramid schemes end at some point, with the possible exception of the American economy. But if the dollar is ever replaced as the world's trading currency, look out!

I am not certain that we "grow" our way out of excess debt. Perhaps we "inflate" our way out of it? And speaking of growth, sometimes too much growth can be a bad thing. Cancer come to mind.

[nevershouldhavesoldit]

And speaking of growth, sometimes too much growth can be a bad thing.

This is my economic pet peeve! Unlimited growth is not inherently good, despite the belief in the political, business, and economic communities that it is. Once growth in any entity exceeds the capacity of its supporting resource bases, errors, omissions, and inappropriate compromises must be made to sustain it.

Give me sustainable growth or let me be happy with what I have - more is most often less.

[RJVB]

... American economy [...] sometimes too much growth can be a bad thing. Cancer come to mind.

I'm digging to see those words together in a single argument

Saw this today, also made crack up (pun intended)

[Woody Sound]

Companies increasingly seem to want to sell leaseplans rather than cars; AFAIK those typically include an extended warranty for the usual initial duration (after you're expected to trade in). My car comes from such a scheme, through a dealer specialising in selling this kind of vehicles (for the VAG group).

Just a aside, a saleswomen who I completely trust, told me to put down as little as possible. If something ever happens where you lose the car (bad accident, etc) before the lease is up, you lose it completely.

[Stevebol]

I haven't been to the Milwaukee branch store yet (nor the Madison branch store). I should pay it a visit sometime, but I REALLY need to put the brakes on my guitar spending (especially since in the past 3 plus months, I bought a Gibson J-35, an Eastman 380CE Pisano, and a Fender American Performer Telecaster). The last time I visited Dave's, was in 2011, at their LaCrosse store, which is a bit of a haul for me, since it's on the other side of the state. I've been going to Dave's off and on since 1990 (when they were at their original LaCrosse store, which was quite a bit smaller than the current store in LaCrosse [which they moved to in 1991 or 1992]). My main gigging guitar for the 90s (a 1980 Gibson Howard Roberts Fusion) was bought from Dave's in 1992.

F.Y.I. - La Crosse gets just as much snow as we do (well, maybe not all of the time, since they don't have to contend with lake effect snow [from Lake Michigan] like we do [and Buffalo, NY gets even more of than we do, courtesy of Lake Erie] ).

Wade's is a good guitar place in Milwaukee;

Wade's Guitar ShopWade's Guitar Shop

[Spook410]

Being able to service debt has a lot to do with GDP.

How much debt is too much? Lots of factors. You find out when it blows up in your face. Ours was too much to handle Covid. Ukraine will make it worse. You can blame supply chain for cars and tech and new production will fix it over a relatively short time as long as the government keeps out of it. But.. what are you going to blame for the cost of a house? Interest rate vs inflation has a lot to do with it. That and the perception among smart people of what our currency is worth. As that perception seeps into the not-so-smart population we're going to see things get worse.

As for Paul Krugman, he is very far left and like Janet Yellen, is serving a political position. He is a promoter of modern monetary theory.. hasn't worked out so well but the progressives still love the idea that you can just print money with impunity.

[Doctor Jeff]

Just a aside, a saleswomen who I completely trust, told me to put down as little as possible. If something ever happens where you lose the car (bad accident, etc) before the lease is up, you lose it completely.

Dang right. I saw an ad for a Mazda C5 or CX50 and they wanted $4000 down and $400 a month...for a $35K car. Ridiculous.

I have rarely leased, but did recently for a couple of vehicles for various reasons. (Got bought out of one of them last year.) I have never put any money down. That and the lack of a big tax bill to be paid at the time of purchase are the important reasons for leasing.

All pyramid schemes end at some point, with the possible exception of the American economy. But if the dollar is ever replaced as the world's trading currency, look out!

I am not certain that we "grow" our way out of excess debt. Perhaps we "inflate" our way out of it? And speaking of growth, sometimes too much growth can be a bad thing. Cancer come to mind.

You say "inflation," I say "growth." You say potato, I say potahtoe... There's always been inflation. DEFLATION is much worse than inflation. We've had a couple of quarters of inflation but nothing like the years of stagflation (7-8%) in the late 70's, which was cured only when Carter appointed Paul Volcker to head the Fed.

Maybe the WW2 debt was a pyramid scheme, but I guess it "worked"?

[Stevebol]

A friend is really into economics but I don't get a lot of it. Looking at the prices for my 2009 Forester it looks like prices are way up.
Cheaper to keep her.

[Doctor Jeff]

A friend is really into economics but I don't get a lot of it. Looking at the prices for my 2009 Forester it looks like prices are way up.
Cheaper to keep her.

That’s true of most wives as well.

[tbeltrans]

A friend is really into economics but I don't get a lot of it. Looking at the prices for my 2009 Forester it looks like prices are way up.
Cheaper to keep her.

I suppose I don't either. For reasons I don't understand, an individual household that chronically spends more than it earns, will end up in trouble sooner or later; but the government does it year after year and just continues to chug along.

Those who are schooled in economics will probably be able to explain this.

Tony