Fender Lays off 300 employees!

[Stevebol]

"We're not in a recession, and anyone who knows one is coming is blowing smoke. It's a unique time in economic history. Prior comparisons are not helpful." Doctor Jeff

Five Star quote of the day, Dr . . . you must be eating Uncle Joe's ice cream cones!
Marinero

I agree with doc and don't see anything political in the statement.

[Doctor Jeff]

Maybe, but what would the effect be if companies and private citizens can no longer afford the energy bills? We've been hearing doomsday estimates of a 10x increase of electricity prices here in France, and even in the Netherlands where people were always better paid than here in France there is worry that many won't be able to afford their energy bills soon.

I don't guess they'll be buying guitars. That is certainly a concern. Could precipitate a recession I guess if it affects the overall economy.

Europe is in a different situation than the US. And Europe is not the primary market for Fender USA guitars. But who can predict the future? Not me--I have a hard time predicting what I'll be having for dinner tonight (though pizza is always a reasonable assumption).

"We're not in a recession, and anyone who knows one is coming is blowing smoke. It's a unique time in economic history. Prior comparisons are not helpful." Doctor Jeff

Five Star quote of the day, Dr . . . you must be eating Uncle Joe's ice cream cones!
Marinero

You should try them, they're quite yummy. Much better than the crap coming out of the Mar-a-Lago factory these days--blechh.

The definition of a recession is a contraction in trade and industrial activity for 2 successive quarters. Yet, recent job growth contradicts that.

To quote a recent article from the business press (CNBC): "There is no historical precedent to indicate that an economy in recession can produce 528,000 jobs in a month, as the U.S. did during July. A 3.5% unemployment rate, tied for the lowest since 1969, is not consistent with contraction."

It could certainly happen in the future of course. So keep your powder dry.

[jameslovestal]

The definition of a recession is a contraction in trade and industrial activity for 2 successive quarters. Yet, recent job growth contradicts that.

To quote a recent article from the business press (CNBC): "There is no historical precedent to indicate that an economy in recession can produce 528,000 jobs in a month, as the U.S. did during July. A 3.5% unemployment rate, tied for the lowest since 1969, is not consistent with contraction."

What you offer is just one definition of a recession. Various economist use different definitions and there is no official definition. Funny but I just got back from lunch with my financial advisor and because I read your post yesterday said to him "we are not in a recession" (to see how he would react); he said that we technical were since last quarter the growth of the US economy was a very slight negative and had been for over 5 months (how he defined "recession")..

BUT he also said what you're saying; that with the low unemployment rate, last quarter's over a half million new jobs figure, earning reports etc... the "we are in a recession" labeling is mostly meaningless. I.e. overall the US economy is healthy.

Thus in most cases the use of the term "recession" is political; I.e. it is used by partisans to frame the current administration in a light that suits one's partisan perspective. Hey, I know that is NOT what you were doing, but that is what most other people do.

[Marinero]

I'm not going to invest in a lengthy discussion but rather say that those who have studied basic economic principles can easily fit our current predicament under the definition of a recession--only the hocus pocus wishes of spin doctors in our current administration and partisan economists contravene. There are NO economic indicators, en masse, that are reliable or quantifiable that will show otherwise. As in all societies, there are "Haves" and "Have Nots" and I don't have to tell you who is hurting in America now with 10% inflation, $4.00 gas prices, recurrent food/supply shortages, and an ever-shrinking dollar. This should not be a political issue but has only become so because of the recurrent failures of our current administration, in every aspect of American life, and the attempt to deny the obvious with politics and spin. Time will prove the obvious. So, who wants to take the bet that things will not get better but worse in the next two years --even with a probable change in the House/Senate after our midterms? Prize: 2015 Frescobaldi CastelGiocondo Brunello di Montalcino or a 5 pack of Alex Bradley Pensado Churchill cigars. Your choice.
Marinero

P.S. By the way boys and girls . . . how do you think those new 80,000 locked and loaded IRS agents are going to work out for the average citizen? Oh, yea . . . it will only affect those who make over $400K. . . as we used to say in the old neighborhood . . . "monkeys will jump out of your ass" before that happens.
M

[nevershouldhavesoldit]

"we are in a recession" labeling is mostly meaningless. I.e. overall the US economy is healthy.

I think that’s misleading. Being truly healthy means being in a stable state of wellness and implies a low likelihood of a dramatic near term decline in health. A heart failure patient may be able to get through the day on diet control plus multiple cardiac and blood pressure meds, but he or she is not healthy. Every morning could start with a setback and the long term prognosis is not good.

Any of a thousand situations around the world could throw us into a rapid downhill spiral. I think the probability of sustained economic and social stability is low and the likelihood of rapid improvement is even lower. The times they have a’changed, and not for the better.

[jameslovestal]

I think that’s misleading. Being truly healthy means being in a stable state of wellness and implies a low likelihood of a dramatic near term decline in health. A heart failure patient may be able to get through the day on diet control plus multiple cardiac and blood pressure meds, but he or she is not healthy. Every morning could start with a setback and the long term prognosis is not good.

Any of a thousand situations around the world could throw us into a rapid downhill spiral. I think the probability of sustained economic and social stability is low and the likelihood of rapid improvement is even lower. The times they have a’changed, and not for the better.

To me you're hedging your "bet" by adding "truly" as in "being truly healthy". Anyhow, I see your point and I should have used a qualifier as well: the US economy is "relatively healthy" and should be for the next quarter or two (and thus I'm investing in it).

But of course that is just a prediction.

[Spook410]

We're not in a recession, and anyone who knows one is coming is blowing smoke. ..

Also, the Feds are trying to engineer a soft landing by raising interest rates. That has the effect of curbing consumption.

- A recession is coming. With high service sector employment and savings from printed money, it's deferred to 2023. Service sector will get hit after tech and manufacturing which are getting hit now.

- Fed has badly blown every step thus far. They were still buying bonds in March. Still, they have said that they will do what has to be done to control inflation. OK. Curbing consumption is a secondary effect and takes a long time. Especially with the Democrats being so determined to diminish supply side. After higher interest rates and quantitative tightening lead to job losses and making financing for cars and houses un-affordable to the lower middle class we should see inflation improve. It will take time and a lot of will on the part of the Fed to ignore howling stock markets and politico's as we grind people down. We'll see. I predict they'll dither and we'll end up in the no man's land of stagflation.

[PDeville]

Marinero, I won't take the bet, but I will try the Bradley Pensado! Thanks!

[Gregc57]

Maybe it just smells like a recession, eh?

[maxsmith]

The Slow Secret Death of the Electric Guitar

We’re the modern equivalent of accordion players…

[EastwoodMike]

The Slow Secret Death of the Electric Guitar

We’re the modern equivalent of accordion players…

I personally don’t think it is quite that bad. That was a pre Covid 2017 article. The guitar landscape is different now. There were plenty of truths in the article though. I will acknowledge this- there is an assumption that if the guitar industry’s sales volumes are not growing it is a problem. Sure if you are a salesman. But ask- what instrument are you more likely to see in any house in any country in the world played by so many age groups? A guitar- acoustic or otherwise is possibly the most accessible instrument about. Just look how cheap the entry price is! Yes there are lots of electronic keyboards about- catering to schools and so forth. But sales volumes are hardly a patch on guitars. Then EDM- dozens of options with no one clear key direction or path to play. People will still want to see and hear live music played. You can’t program music live. Only hear a pre recorded track mixed with other tracks.
trumpets, pianos, violins, guitars and drums are not going away anytime soon. These are all gateway instruments into the art of performing music. The most accessible of them all? Perhaps the humble 3/4 size nylon string plywood classical guitar?
I don’t think guitar will have the same pop marketing boom popularity it once enjoyed, but I doubt it will disappear in my lifetime or my Son’s.

cheers.
EMike

[jameslovestal]

Are people under 40 learning to play music, period? To me that is a more useful question and not if they purchased a guitar or not.

If the will to play music as a hobby is dying off that would be very sad, but if just guitar, that would be a good thing.

[ChazFromCali]

That's a good start. Maybe the mega-corp. conglomeration that owns the name will sell it to someone who will return to making quality guitars. I can dream anyway.

[Stevebol]

I'm not going to invest in a lengthy discussion but rather say that those who have studied basic economic principles can easily fit our current predicament under the definition of a recession--only the hocus pocus wishes of spin doctors in our current administration and partisan economists contravene. There are NO economic indicators, en masse, that are reliable or quantifiable that will show otherwise. As in all societies, there are "Haves" and "Have Nots" and I don't have to tell you who is hurting in America now with 10% inflation, $4.00 gas prices, recurrent food/supply shortages, and an ever-shrinking dollar. This should not be a political issue but has only become so because of the recurrent failures of our current administration, in every aspect of American life, and the attempt to deny the obvious with politics and spin. Time will prove the obvious. So, who wants to take the bet that things will not get better but worse in the next two years --even with a probable change in the House/Senate after our midterms? Prize: 2015 Frescobaldi CastelGiocondo Brunello di Montalcino or a 5 pack of Alex Bradley Pensado Churchill cigars. Your choice.
Marinero

P.S. By the way boys and girls . . . how do you think those new 80,000 locked and loaded IRS agents are going to work out for the average citizen? Oh, yea . . . it will only affect those who make over $400K. . . as we used to say in the old neighborhood . . . "monkeys will jump out of your ass" before that happens.
M

You can't drink money and cigars. The new economy in the US will revolve around water.