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I don't have any more space under the beds in my house for all those empty guitar cases.
Originally Posted by jasaco
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09-30-2015 05:57 PM
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gig bags my friend, gig bags! Originally Posted by fep
haha
cheers
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Hey... booboo takes offense to that.. Originally Posted by Stringswinger
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Same thing with the Google Jazz Guitar Group. That's why I post over here. It just takes one person to ruin a forum. Originally Posted by nopedals
Doc Dosco
PS... good topic. I wish I had the answer to why archtop sales have tanked in certain areas of the world. I think music gear related sales are probably down somewhat everywhere. First, purchases of all recorded music went south, and now some of the very instruments that created those recordings are in jeopardy. Go figure.....
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Austerity is the well off blaming the not well off, and trying to make the not well off pay for the problems created by the well off getting to be well off. Of course the reality that austerity worsens the economic problems doesn't have traction with politicians- politicians exist to protect the wealthy. Originally Posted by Greentone
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Sorry for introducing macroeconomic policy into the discussion. I agree that it has no enduring role in this forum. My only point was that debt reduction policies have been impacting European economies in predictable ways--i.e., cooling them off. (This is the economic consensus that I alluded to--to call this a repudiation of austerity policies may have been too strong on my part. However, the majority of economists do, in fact, subscribe to the theory that reducing debt will have a short-term effect of reducing GDP.) That's it...no more economics.
The ineluctable long-term trend, of course, has been movement away from archtop guitars toward solid-body and semi-acoustic electric guitars. Recall that before 1950 almost _all_ electrics were archtops. 65 years later, the solid body, and to a lesser extent, the semi-acoustic has eclipsed the good old archtop. Musical tastes account for this.
Musical tastes also account for the gradual reduction in the number of electric guitars sold, overall. Music is now being crafted by people with GarageBand, FL, and other digital programs...2015's two turntables and a microphone.
No cause for alarm, though. What we do with archtop guitars is still very enjoyable and will be valid for a long, long time.
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yes i agree whole hearted ....the entire world seems to be in a recession forcing us to cut out or at least down on luxury items ... and sure we would all want a roomful of high end archtops but the current prices who can afford it Originally Posted by jorgemg1984
Also there is definitely a so called upward Trend in jazz style T types ...
with many mods distancing itself from the humble bare bones 50's style tele (which i adore tho)
these are now being offered with f hole hollow bodied /fully chambered with humbuckers or P90 or charlie christian pickups in neck and ebony/rosewood fingerboards, 24.75 scale length tele's ..and i see a new "jazz box" tele neck pickup suppossedly to make a tele sound more like an archtop is now available just to prove this trend is on the upswing
all which i think is giving the NEW age jazz guitarist and many older ones an option which is very Jazzy looking with great Jazz tone at an affordable price point ...and one that can take the knocks of live gigs which must be really hurting the archtop market
very sad though ....
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Yeh no more politics guys, I'm calling thread OP privilege on this one (although such a thing doesn't exist), not blaming anyone. I think we've discussed enough about politics although economic discussions are still important (imo)
Imagine a market where say 5 archtops are chasing one buyer. Then we'd all be in the crap, although with loads of really nice archtops to play for next to nothing.
I doubt that will ever happen but it could.
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ATH, actually, the GBPEUR rate was higher in the first half of the Noughties. GBP is only at '5yr high' against the euro. Originally Posted by ArchtopHeaven
Currencies Quote | Reuters.co.uk
Gotta cut my original response down to size. I used REERs because people 'feel' currency in their income/wealth/job prospects based on how that country's terms of trade are affected (the bolivar has strengthened dramatically against the the GBP in recent years but most in your corner of the world couldn't care less, and the actual traceable bolivar has actually dramatically weakened (the effective bolivar/samadi/etc OTOH has weakened by 90+% year-to-date (yes, one tenth of its value in Feb)).
My comment about real estate is that RE and stock markets are the indicators by which the broad market who might be in the market for an archtop (say top 50% of income earners?) 'feel' wealth effect (i.e. 'I feel a little bit better and will splash on an archtop, even if the currency is going against me') because for the most part (except people who own small businesses), personal earned income levels do not move around that dramatically. People 'feel' stock market wealth by price movement (which has been going down since end of Q1 in Europe) and 'feel' real estate by a combination of price and volume (if either goes down vs one's recent reference point, it's bad). That's down since 2014. The real estate market has a LOT of friction - for every transaction, there are movers 2x, real estate agents, banks 2x, insurance brokers, furniture purchases, remodeling, etc. Volume dropping or rising has a big effect on broader income sentiment regardless of whether prices actually go up or down. If domestically driven, you can see likely changes in terms of
Broad market sentiment is KEY as Bill Gates getting 10% wealthier won't cause him to buy 10,000 archtops, even though his wealth may increase by 1,000,000 x what mine might. But he might buy 10 or 20 if he were collecting. But if you want L5s to go from £3000 to £4500, you need people to take 1,000 guitars out of the market. That requires broad wealth effect.
Don't know. Personally, I am constantly amazed at where property trades in non-London U.K. compared to income. Europe/Australia and HK/China too. Marquee cities (LDN, Paris, central HK, Shanghai, Sydney new build, Melbourne new build) all have significant percentages of purchases made by non-residents, who use the purchases as a way of generating an expat wealth base. That's not changing in the downturn (weak commodity pricing, global profits recession). But unless what they do triggers broad income gains for locals, non-marquee city housing price gains and transactions will be lackluster. Not sure what triggers a change, or what a price drop would do to people. Think it would drop confidence and reduce transactions in lots of things for lots of people. Originally Posted by ArchtopHeaven
Last edited by travisty; 10-01-2015 at 06:52 AM.
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Expat= FILTH (Failed in London. Try Hongkong.)
Alien= Expat who is not from London.
Repat= Feeble. (FIHBL. Failed in Hongkong. Back to London.)
Natives= Overtanned willing nubiles in sarongs who may or may not be s/he. Not that there is anything wrong with that. Mutton isn't lamb.Last edited by Jabberwocky; 10-01-2015 at 03:34 AM.
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And "Exiled"? Originally Posted by Jabberwocky
Guess here in HK that makes me a resident alien, and not yet feeble filth (though not being English, I have an 'advantage' there). Tho having spent 60% of my life (so far) outside my 'home country', what actually defines 'home country' becomes a valid question.
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Exiled= Not want to be seen in any country that would have me as its resident.
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As a 28 year old, I agree with a lot of the points made about under 30s being hit particularly hard. Most of my friends are still working for low money. I don't own my home and despite wanting one, a high end archtop. Priorities.... That combined with great players playing tele's - Mike stern, Nirs Felder - Strat etc and it's hard to justify.
I'll still manage though - sell me a nice archtop cheap please?
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Man I hate to be the guy who do this but please don't do the "i am going to say something twice to see if it becomes true". I have posted you the link, debt is not reducing in Europe. It's growing slower than it used to be. That graphic was pretty easy to read. And of course less debt growth (different from less debt) impacts economic growth, short term. Originally Posted by Greentone
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(Caution, possibly ironical content!)
>> Is this the new standard for the next few years? <<
The preoccupation with the predictability of the future has always been a somewhat delicate matter and makes in no way happy, especially when it comes to financial matters. If you believe the assessment of a luthier like Jimmy D'Aquisto, money was invented by people who were all thumbs. Since the thoughts of the rich (or those who want to be there one day) seem mainly and constantly to be turning on money, they must be the most awkward and unfortunate people, no matter what they themselves claim to be, or what is reported about them in the media.
What stands out in this forum, among other things, is a disproportionate relationship to the prices and financial performance of guitars. If one understands music as an extension of human language and musical instruments as tools for this purpose, this would be roughly comparable, as if one would think incessantly about the cost of the next dental bill while speaking, or the fact that one could lose one's own teeth one day.
Of course, it is said that only one thing is worse and provoking more evil power than to possess a lot of money: to have no money at all.
Some seem, however, not like to understand that on the limited, though global vintage archtop guitar market enough instruments are out there in the current value of $ 300, substantially corresponding to those instruments that are traded for $ 3,000. If you're not handicapped by two completely left feet.Last edited by Ol' Fret; 10-01-2015 at 07:24 AM.
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As Jorgemg1984 noted on the eurostat page, government debt to GDP is continuing to rise slowly. But that may not be the important number. In most countries, those who afford archtops and make ATH deliriously happy by lifting the offer are not the ones living off the largesse of governments' lack of austerity, or in turn super hard-pressed when governments implement austerity measures.
Governments don't buy archtops. People do. And European people are, by and large, over the past several years, reducing their effective debt/leverage.
Private sector debt which is here:
Eurostat - Tables, Graphs and Maps Interface (TGM) table
And household sector debt to income ratios which is here:
http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/tgm/tab...00104&plugin=1
both started falling in most places a couple of years ago.
The reason why this is key is that this is self-imposed austerity. People paying down debt (unless they are seeing their incomes rise super-dramatically), which is the equivalent of saving, not spending.
THAT SAID.... the faster data (such as consumer credit, and private sector credit from the various central banks, etc.) shows that eurozone private sector credit started picking up last October, and consumer credit started picking up across the eurozone just as eurostoxx was peaking in Feb/March. You can find that data on tradingeconomics.com
Euro Area Private Sector Credit | 1997-2015 | Data | Chart | Calendar
Euro Area Consumer Credit | 1997-2015 | Data | Chart | Calendar | Forecast (look at max time frame to see big picture)
Using a combination of consumer confidence, policy uncertainty (see Economic Policy Uncertainty Index), disposable household income, securities savings, bank deposit changes, and household spending data (there is a lot in eurostat, tradingeconomics, quandl, etc) will suggest that things aren't so bad ahead. how much of this is due to the economic benefits to the private sector of lower oil/commodity prices is hard to know.
Ennuf about economics. I'm gonna go practice!
Hang in there ATH!
The sun'll come out... tomorrow... bet your bottom bolivar that tomorrow there'll be sun.
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We all probably concentrate too much on gear and not enough on the music and our skills. But it's fun. And rewarding on some level. Originally Posted by AndrewPat
All I can say is... watch the For Sale forum! Someone just got a great deal on a gaudy (but cool in its own way) Heritage American Eagle - a guitar which is as much an investment as anything else. Someone WILL get a great deal on a Tsuji Shiro/T&Joodee Gem B. jzucker has some low-priced guitars up, and ATH had a really cheap X700 up on the site for a while and I was shocked it didn't go at his price here quickly. I notice a bunch of cheap stuff popping up all the time (guess it depends on what 'cheap' means tho).
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Originally Posted by travisty
As Jorgemg1984 noted on the eurostat page, government debt to GDP is continuing to rise slowly. But that may not be the important number. In most countries, those who afford archtops and make ATH deliriously happy by lifting the offer are not the ones living off the largesse of governments' lack of austerity, or in turn super hard-pressed when governments implement austerity measures.
Governments don't buy archtops. People do. And European people are, by and large, over the past several years, reducing their effective debt/leverage.
Private sector debt which is here:
Eurostat - Tables, Graphs and Maps Interface (TGM) table
And household sector debt to income ratios which is here:
Eurostat - Tables, Graphs and Maps Interface (TGM) table
both started falling in most places a couple of years ago.
The reason why this is key is that this is self-imposed austerity. People paying down debt (unless they are seeing their incomes rise super-dramatically), which is the equivalent of saving, not spending.
THAT SAID.... the faster data (such as consumer credit, and private sector credit from the various central banks, etc.) shows that eurozone private sector credit started picking up last October, and consumer credit started picking up across the eurozone just as eurostoxx was peaking in Feb/March. You can find that data on tradingeconomics.com
Euro Area Private Sector Credit | 1997-2015 | Data | Chart | Calendar
Euro Area Consumer Credit | 1997-2015 | Data | Chart | Calendar | Forecast (look at max time frame to see big picture)
Using a combination of consumer confidence, policy uncertainty (see Economic Policy Uncertainty Index), disposable household income, securities savings, bank deposit changes, and household spending data (there is a lot in eurostat, tradingeconomics, quandl, etc) will suggest that things aren't so bad ahead. how much of this is due to the economic benefits to the private sector of lower oil/commodity prices is hard to know.
Ennuf about economics. I'm gonna go practice!
Hang in there ATH!
The sun'll come out... tomorrow... bet your bottom bolivar that tomorrow there'll be sun.
Travis thanks for the fantastic contributions. I can only say the forum has been elevated by your presence and your contributions.
Although I can only speak for myself, I'm sure I could say thanks on behalf of all of us.
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Travisty, austerity or not - fiscal matters will never make you happy in the long run!
Socialism failed because it was not one.
Capitalism could fail because it is one.
Watch the For Sale forum? After recently acquiring a nice Lang archtop? That would only make sense for a guitar broker...
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Originally Posted by travisty
Yeh I was frankly shocked by the response from the X-700 but I shouldn't be. Guilds never sell that well and the X-700 is an outlier.
If you go to a brand that doesn't have the same exposure, then pick a more niche model from their range, no matter how good it looks, or how good it sounds, you wont get an easy ride for the money it 'should' be worth.
I sold it on ebay last a couple days ago for £1699 to a gentleman in Spain. Although unfortunately we are having some language issues, which could end up puling the deal apart.
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...that goes by the name of Ed? Originally Posted by ArchtopHeaven
Sorry for offtopic, I am just interested.
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> I'm saving this quote Cunamara. It's right on! Thanks Originally Posted by Cunamara
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Originally Posted by redwater
yeh thats it Ed Sheeran? I couldn't remember his name but I could remember the colour of his glorious hair :-)
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I agree Travisty, private debt is more relevant to this debate than public debt. My only reference to public debt was to show that is not being cut but only growing slower, which had been stated. Still this has an indirect impact on consumer spending (and therefore archtops) - slower debt growth for governments means they will raise taxes and cut public salaries or even fire people. Originally Posted by travisty
As Jorgemg1984 noted on the eurostat page, government debt to GDP is continuing to rise slowly. But that may not be the important number. In most countries, those who afford archtops and make ATH deliriously happy by lifting the offer are not the ones living off the largesse of governments' lack of austerity, or in turn super hard-pressed when governments implement austerity measures.
Governments don't buy archtops. People do. And European people are, by and large, over the past several years, reducing their effective debt/leverage.
Private sector debt which is here:
Eurostat - Tables, Graphs and Maps Interface (TGM) table
And household sector debt to income ratios which is here:
Eurostat - Tables, Graphs and Maps Interface (TGM) table
both started falling in most places a couple of years ago.
The reason why this is key is that this is self-imposed austerity. People paying down debt (unless they are seeing their incomes rise super-dramatically), which is the equivalent of saving, not spending.
THAT SAID.... the faster data (such as consumer credit, and private sector credit from the various central banks, etc.) shows that eurozone private sector credit started picking up last October, and consumer credit started picking up across the eurozone just as eurostoxx was peaking in Feb/March. You can find that data on tradingeconomics.com
Euro Area Private Sector Credit | 1997-2015 | Data | Chart | Calendar
Euro Area Consumer Credit | 1997-2015 | Data | Chart | Calendar | Forecast (look at max time frame to see big picture)
Using a combination of consumer confidence, policy uncertainty (see Economic Policy Uncertainty Index), disposable household income, securities savings, bank deposit changes, and household spending data (there is a lot in eurostat, tradingeconomics, quandl, etc) will suggest that things aren't so bad ahead. how much of this is due to the economic benefits to the private sector of lower oil/commodity prices is hard to know.
Ennuf about economics. I'm gonna go practice!
Hang in there ATH!
The sun'll come out... tomorrow... bet your bottom bolivar that tomorrow there'll be sun.
And I agree - things will probably improve and enough about economics. The sun has been out here
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