Total Collapse Of The Archtop Market (above $900 models)

[drbhrb]

Jazz schools are churning out more archtop wielding jazz guitarists than ever existed before. I have a hard time believing archtop sales have declined. More likely it is the influence of lower market companies like Ibanez that are now producing guitars that get you 90% of the way there for 25% of the cost. There's less reason to shell out for an L4 to the average player.

[Archie]

Jazz schools are churning out more archtop wielding jazz guitarists than ever existed before. I have a hard time believing archtop sales have declined. More likely it is the influence of lower market companies like Ibanez that are now producing guitars that get you 90% of the way there for 25% of the cost. There's less reason to shell out for an L4 to the average player.

TBH thats what i thought too and was going to say it myself having recently just been churned out the system.

What I can say is, about 50% of the kids in these places, dont play archtops.

[jorgemg1984]

Jazz schools are churning out more archtop wielding jazz guitarists than ever existed before. I have a hard time believing archtop sales have declined. More likely it is the influence of lower market companies like Ibanez that are now producing guitars that get you 90% of the way there for 25% of the cost. There's less reason to shell out for an L4 to the average player.

This will vary from place to place but I've seen jams in lots of places around the world and most young players these days did not used archtops but teles or semis.

[nopedals]

I'm not saying that there is not a dip, or even a profound depression in guitar prices. But I will say this; threads making exactly the same points have been showing up on the Internet going back to the 90s; a lot of them circa 2008. I think Gruhn predicts a crash every five years.

[Archie]

I'm not saying that there is not a dip, or even a profound depression in guitar prices. But I will say this; threads making exactly the same points have been showing up on the Internet going back to the 90s; a lot of them circa 2008. I think Gruhn predicts a crash every five years.

I am aware of this phenomenon and that this is a thread already been gone over. However imo a sustained low and such a low is quite odd (or maybe not).

[Stringswinger]

I think for younger players, cheap guitars do the trick (probably because money is tight). Whether they go after high end guitars when they get into their 40's (like the Gen X crowd have) is yet to be seen. While electronic music is big among youngsters, it seems like a lot of them still play guitar.

Archtops were not in favor in the 1970's (and were affordable and took a while to sell) and came back strong in the 90's. If they are losing popularity again, I would bet that it is part of a cycle. If prices decline, buy more. As the founder of the Rothschild banking dynasty once said "Buy to the sound of cannons, sell to the sound of trumpets".

Very rare high end archtops (D'Angelicos, D'Aquistos, Vintage Gibson L-5's and Super 400"s, Strombergs and perhaps a few modern luthier built guitars) will probably always be in demand. A Tal Farlow reissue? Maybe not. As with all things, supply and demand rule. Yesterday, today and tomorrow.

[newsense]

Wow - I hadn't realized how bad things were until I saw that even highly customized 175's were now selling for silly prices:

Gibson ES-175 Semi Acoustic Guitar Clock - G7 | eBay

[Franz 1997]

Actually the average price is about £1500 for Es-175's in the UK and has been for about the last 2 years. I have seen one or two sell for £2000 in the last couple years. There is one right now for £1999 that I nearly bought for £1300. Probably will end up doing just that. More like £1400

If you bought an ES-175 on ebay UK for £2000 you were pretty desperate ;-) (obviously not you personally)

ATH, of course I defer to the fact that you are watching closely and I'm not - but I was considering another 175 recently and noticed that two 80s guitars went v quickly around £1.9- 2k with 3 weeks of each other. At the same time, have seen none around £1500 for some months now. Of course, this is on Ebay; you may have private sources for all I know.

I put this down to the idea that sellers may be pricing in some reflection of the recent massive hike in new Gibson prices
onto their used guitars. Glad I didn't pay £2K for one now ( well, I wouldn't have, tbh)

[newsense]

Despite my flippancy, I think this is a really great thread. I just wish I could find some of these great archtops at unprecedentedly low prices in the UK. A 175 for £1400, as ATH suggested, would certainly have me reaching for my credit card.

[newsense]

Despite my flippancy, I think this is a really great thread. I just wish I could find some of these great archtops at unprecedentedly low prices in the UK. A 175 for £1400, as ATH suggested, would certainly have me reaching for my credit card.

Having said that, I just found this for £1800 on eBay:

Gibson ES-175 in Natural Maple 2001 Memphis Custom | eBay

Someone please tell me that a 2001 model isn't even worth £1800, which may prevent me from doing something stupid, as it is only 20 minutes drive away.

[jorgemg1984]

I think for younger players, cheap guitars do the trick (probably because money is tight). Whether they go after high end guitars when they get into their 40's (like the Gen X crowd have) is yet to be seen. While electronic music is big among youngsters, it seems like a lot of them still play guitar.

Archtops were not in favor in the 1970's (and were affordable and took a while to sell) and came back strong in the 90's. If they are losing popularity again, I would bet that it is part of a cycle. If prices decline, buy more. As the founder of the Rothschild banking dynasty once said "Buy to the sound of cannons, sell to the sound of trumpets".

Very rare high end archtops (D'Angelicos, D'Aquistos, Vintage Gibson L-5's and Super 400"s, Strombergs and perhaps a few modern luthier built guitars) will probably always be in demand. A Tal Farlow reissue? Maybe not. As with all things, supply and demand rule. Yesterday, today and tomorrow.

In my experience is not only a matter of money - it's a matter of sound and versatility. "Modern jazz" sound has more sustain, ie teles and semis. Also most jazz players these days play lots of other styles and it's hard to use archtops on those (with exceptions, of course).

[Archie]

ATH, of course I defer to the fact that you are watching closely and I'm not - but I was considering another 175 recently and noticed that two 80s guitars went v quickly around £1.9- 2k with 3 weeks of each other. At the same time, have seen none around £1500 for some months now. Of course, this is on Ebay; you may have private sources for all I know.

I put this down to the idea that sellers may be pricing in some reflection of the recent massive hike in new Gibson prices
onto their used guitars. Glad I didn't pay £2K for one now ( well, I wouldn't have, tbh)

Hey Franz no you'e not wrong in what you have said. I have seen the odd one slip past at over £2000 but the average watcher knows the price is about £1,600 (tbf). It not much but I'm pretty sure a few years ago (literally) they were selling for £2500 all day long.

Es-175 might not be good bell weathers either because they are always the most popular model for anyone with a bit of cash, so even in dark times, es-175's should hold up quite well. Saying that an averagre price drop of £750 in three years is not a good sign and if the one model you should rely on to hold its value drops, then that may be the perfect bell whether lol

I need to go to the LSE (London School of Economics)

[nopedals]

> Having said that, I just found this for £1800 on eBay:
> Gibson ES-175 in Natural Maple 2001 Memphis Custom | eBay

I clicked on the link. There are five days left on that auction.

[Franz 1997]

> Having said that, I just found this for £1800 on eBay:
> Gibson ES-175 in Natural Maple 2001 Memphis Custom | eBay

I clicked on the link. There are five days left on that auction.

Well, bids starting at £1800. Though if ATH is right, it might finish at £1800 as well..

[blackcat]

Merely as a point of information.........................

As of Q1 2015 UK government debt amounted to £1.56 trillion, or 81.58% of total GDP, at which time the annual cost of servicing (paying the interest) the public debt amounted to around £43bn (which is roughly 3% of GDP or 8% of UK government tax income).

No lessons have been learned since 2008 it would seem.

[Franz 1997]

Merely as a point of information.........................

As of Q1 2015 UK government debt amounted to £1.56 trillion, or 81.58% of total GDP, at which time the annual cost of servicing (paying the interest) the public debt amounted to around £43bn (which is roughly 3% of GDP or 8% of UK government tax income).

No lessons have been learned since 2008 it would seem.

On the contrary. The proposed deficit reduction cuts, which are very controversial, show clearly that they have.

But can I suggest that this kind of post, interesting though it may be to some, has no place in this discussion?? This thread is about the arch top guitar market, not making political points.

[Archie]

> Having said that, I just found this for £1800 on eBay:
> Gibson ES-175 in Natural Maple 2001 Memphis Custom | eBay

I clicked on the link. There are five days left on that auction.

Thanks for the heads up ;-)

[Archie]

Well, bids starting at £1800. Though if ATH is right, it might finish at £1800 as well..

It will more than likely go unsold, I will contact the seller give him a price minus fees and a couple hundred off for it not selling @1,800 (if it doesn't). Thats how you bag them for under £1500 ;-)

[Archtop Guy]

Oh, great. So I moved from one arcane instrument (pedal steel) to another (archtop jazz guitar). What's wrong with me? I should have gotten out years ago, and now it's too late...

.\>Jasaco, I've heard the accordion is the next hot thing. I'll take that useless archtop off your hands for you???

[Archie]

On the contrary. The proposed deficit reduction cuts, which are very controversial, show clearly that they have.

But can I suggest that this kind of post, interesting though it may be to some, has no place in this discussion?? This thread is about the arch top guitar market, not making political points.

Well for us not to get into an argument, I think adding a little bit of info about the UK economy is welcome (in terms of statistics). In regards to government policy, well I did say I think we are heading for another crash, purely because we rebuilt the economy on the very same things that destroyed it, a housing boom through purposeful lack of supply and the finance sector still not being sufficiently regulated. Austerity was supposed to smash the debt but has only increased it through poor Tax returns.


Anyway lets not make it too political as Franz said but sure there will be a small cross over. I'm also a political animal so although hard for me to say, I agree with Franz.

I get to have the last word on the politics cause its my thread privilege muahahaha

[blackcat]

I can see why Franz is coming from and in essence he is of course entirely correct. Posting the stats was trigerred in fact by the original poster including in his analysis of the market.............


'This year, with the collapse of the Euro against Sterling and the rise of the Dollar, the UK seems to be in a bad way. What used to be a good deal for Mainland Europeans, is now looking expensive because of Sterling and the Dollar is still too far apart, for Americans to find UK guitars cheap, which comparatively they are'. Also his reference to the UK being in a 'harsh place' at the present time.


I have absolutely no desire like him to turn this into a political talking shop, but the data was posted to put things in context. May I be forgiven.

[Archie]

I can see why Franz is coming from and in essence he is of course entirely correct. Posting the stats was trigerred in fact by the original poster including in his analysis of the market.............


'This year, with the collapse of the Euro against Sterling and the rise of the Dollar, the UK seems to be in a bad way. What used to be a good deal for Mainland Europeans, is now looking expensive because of Sterling and the Dollar is still too far apart, for Americans to find UK guitars cheap, which comparatively they are'. Also his reference to the UK being in a 'harsh place' at the present time.


I have absolutely no desire like him to turn this into a political talking shop, but the data was posted to put things in context. May I be forgiven.

All of the stats posted here are relevant, we are not just talking about archtops we are talking about the guitar market, which of course is soley based on economics and economic conditions.

I have opened this thread to link the two to find a conclusion. Sure the political stuff isn't that important and probably best left out.

[nopedals]

There are lots of places I would go to get economics wisdom. A jazz guitar forum would not be one of them. Plus, it inevitably degenerates to political nonsense. Frankly, I come here to get away from political talk. But if you want an example of what happens when you let it get started, go here:

https://groups.google.com/forum/#!forum/alt.guitar.amps

[fep]

Could most of the buyers/owners of archtops be an aging demographic? Maybe many of those buyers already have as many archtops as the need/want? What happens when they retire and downsize? Or, move into old folks homes? Or, move on to the jazz jam in the sky?

Edit: As Greentone already said (I went back and read his post)

[jasaco]

Maybe many of those buyers already have as many archtops as the need/want?

I'm having trouble understanding that statement. Does this even exist?