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Post pandemic guitar boom is now a crash. It’s not 1964 again. The dream was short lived. The next race is now it’s gonna be a race to the bottom. Listing it on Reverb for whatever is an ineffectual side-hustle. There are now 5000 Les Paul Customs alone on Reverb. Under-cutting on a big scale is coming. More stores and online sellers who HAVE TO SELL will undercut each other.
Thankfully, guitars are for playing, and no one needs that many. The people who thought the formula for guitar acquisition was N=N + 1 are highly wealthy, small tiny fraction of people.
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02-27-2025 11:32 AM
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Wake me up when a Guild Artist Award goes for $2,000
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Prices go up and prices go down in all markets depending on the supply/demand ratio at any particular time. There is no way to predict future prices of anything, but if history is any guide, inflation will continue and the value of historically high demand guitars will go up.
I would bet that we will never see a day when a Guild Artist Award will drop to 2K.
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The attic of history is littered with musical instruments that once were in high demand.
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Most of these swings don't impact jazz guitars all that much. Mostly applies to the guitars everyone wants.
Last edited by omphalopsychos; 02-27-2025 at 04:47 PM.
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The guitar apocalypse is less exciting than I want it to be.
Originally Posted by Stringswinger
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I don't think this is particularly relevant when it comes to nice carved acoustic/electric archtop guitars. The market is small: as older consumers age out, younger consumers enter the market; as more independent builders add to the existing supply, more people become interested and the global market slowly expands. More like the orchestral strings market than the electric guitar market, I suspect. IMO, YMMV, and so forth.
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not unless it gets dropped a dozen times Originally Posted by Stringswinger
sorry, couldn't resist
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Bear in mind that to some extent the video posted is click bait and the guy making the video is monetizing fear. He also is providing inaccurate information. He says that there are Gibson 5000 Les Paul Customs on reverb. If you punch Gibson Les Paul Custom in a reverb search, you will get just over 4500 results, but that includes all Custom shop Les Pauls, most of which are not Les Paul Customs.
I suspect that the low end guitar market is flooded and that prices (which are already low) may fall (on the low end stuff). But the high end, rare stuff? Don't hold your breath waiting for a massive price drop. There will always be rich people who will pay big bucks for the best stuff. And that includes Gibson Les Paul Customs.
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Someone just bought a used Borys Jazz Solid for 6K on Reverb, the price of a new one.
Someone's not aware of the used guitar Apocalypse, dammit!
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Gonna cite this YT video on future lowball Reverb offers for archtops. Will report back.
Just kidding. Did you all know I haven't bought a new guitar in a year? This might be proof of the apocalypse.
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Actually, as time goes forward and even in the near future certain guitars will hold at least a decent value. Consider today the throw away consumer. Consider how much we buy from overseas everything not just guitars. Quality can be known and even the lay person can figure out some of the differences. I agree with SS that at the low end it is just that, consumable guitars. If I buy a $200-400 guitar and it needs any major work, we just buy another one.
When it comes to American Made guitars of high quality like Les Paul's and carved Jazz boxes they may not flourish but you have something of value. First of all, as a fine musical instrument and second one that is made well if treat properly will easily outlive you. I don't see the marker dropping out on Gibson Jazz guitars or Guild AA. They might not be worth any more than you bought it for and even take a loss they still have value. Buying guitars is not investing at all. If you have not a lot of means but could at least afford one L5, you at least know that in some emergency you can sell or your heirs that will have value. This is the rational in buying a great guitar that might be stretching your budget, but you can at least console yourself. To me that is investing in guitars. I need to convince myself the purchase is ok and will hold up even though I will take some loss.
Gibson is not making high end jazz guitars and if they do in the future, it will only be in small numbers. The players looking for these guitars know, and they are not going to simply bottom out. I don't see L5's doubling in price anytime soon or even going up but the days of a $5000 near mint L5 are long gone. If I were to buy a guitar now it basically has to meet certain standards of value and the " out factor." Cheap guitars are just that cheap. You buy a cheap import flattop or electric guitar you have a tool to play music. Nothing wrong with that but if you want to sell it it will not buy a weeks' worth of groceries in my house.
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Good God, I'm heading for the bomb shelter! Originally Posted by omphalopsychos
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In these days of ever increasing costs, I’m starting to appreciate more and more the fact that Heritage can put out a solid carved made in USA archtop for $4500 brand new.
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Nah, just a omphalapocalypse. Originally Posted by omphalopsychos
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The guy making the video owns the guitar store. It would be in his interest to talk up the prices and spread optimism. You need to provide some argument to back your claim that he is making click bait and monetising fear. Originally Posted by Stringswinger
Bear in mind that to some extent the video posted is click bait and the guy making the video is monetizing fear. He also is providing inaccurate information. He says that there are Gibson 5000 Les Paul Customs on reverb. If you punch Gibson Les Paul Custom in a reverb search, you will get just over 4500 results, but that includes all Custom shop Les Pauls, most of which are not Les Paul Customs.
I suspect that the low end guitar market is flooded and that prices (which are already low) may fall (on the low end stuff). But the high end, rare stuff? Don't hold your breath waiting for a massive price drop. There will always be rich people who will pay big bucks for the best stuff. And that includes Gibson Les Paul Customs.
As for those rich people, why have they stopped buying luxury watches? Prices have been in decline for eleven consecutive quarters. The markets for trading cards, whiskey and wine have also declined. Collectibles have been losing value for twenty years. So why should old guitars be any different? Why will the rich folk keep buying them?
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When you own a store that buys used goods (he talked about buying a Mesa amp to resell), it is in your interest to scare people Into selling their stuff for less. Originally Posted by Litterick
But I will bet he could be making a lot of money from his videos. By using fear to get people to click his videos he makes easier bucks then buying and selling guitars.
Rich folks are still buying luxury items. High end guitars are a luxury item. Nobody needs an L-5 or a Rolex.
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Those seem like cherry picked examples though. Other things like vintage/retro video games and consoles as well as things like action figures have gone to higher prices than ever. Some auction houses that specialize in collectibles have continued (so far) to see record year after record year. It’s not as simple as the value of a few choice items declining. My point being, it is just as easy to pick a few other random indicators and arrive at the opposite conclusion. Originally Posted by Litterick
I agree with Hammertone’s assessment with regard to the guitar market for what it’s worth.
Sent from my iPhone using TapatalkLast edited by ThatRhythmMan; 02-28-2025 at 10:32 AM.
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Homes sales have slowed way down but the prices are still insane. None of those cheap-ass reverb sellers are gonna come off those prices. Keep dreaming boys.
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I just made a shield from an old hardshell case and I'm working on gutting some pedals to fashion some makeshift armor, so I'll be ready for the post guitar apocalypse.
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A new Eastman 910 thermo-cure is $5249, so Heritage is looking mighty good! What goes around comes around… Originally Posted by andrew
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Actually they sell for under $4,200 new. Originally Posted by nevershouldhavesoldit
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Home sales have declined because people cannot qualify for loans at current interest rates for a 30 year mortgage. If those rates drop, sales will accelerate. The prices for homes are quite sane when you factor in the extreme lack of supply. Desirable housing markets are 10 years away from being able to meet demand (and in some places where building is so restricted that nobody is willing to do it, that supply may be constrained far longer than 10 years). But there is some inelasticity of demand when it comes to housing as everyone (most of us anyway) needs housing. Originally Posted by DawgBone
The only people who need guitars are professional musicians, so usual rules of supply and demand prevail. When I see super high Reverb prices, I see a few things. First, there are speculators who do not want or need to sell. If they have a rare item and they have the financial ability to wait for their price, why should they sell for less? It is not being "cheap ass" to buy low and sell high, it is being a smart businessman. Second, I see an opportunity to negotiate a lower price. Asking prices and selling prices are often two different things. It is said that in any negotiation, he who names the first price usually loses. If you are going to sell on Reverb (or this forum for that matter), the rules are that you have to name a price. A smart seller will start high and come down when engaged by a smart buyer. "Cheap ass" buyers who want their money for nothing and their chicks for free probably will be left out when it comes to the good stuff. Finally, I see rarity when I see high prices. It can be that the item advertised is rare and if you want one, the high price is the ticket to admission or it can be rarity in that location and the high price may reflect the import duties it took to get it there.
In a Capitalist system, the little people will often be jealous of those who have done better and bitch about prices of things that they cannot afford (or bitch about those who can afford them). In a Socialist system the little people will often keep their mouths shut for fear of being sent to a reeducation camp. I prefer the Capitalist system. YMMV.
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This video is just one shop owner's opinion- and Portsmouth NH is a pretty small town. Nor does he cite any actual data, just a couple of anecdotes. Now if you had the CFO of Reverb presenting year-over-year metrics, or GC reporting same store sales, etc, that would be more credible.
Anecdotally, I don't think he's wrong, though. The last shop I bought an archtop at, pre-COVID the owner retired- and the one guitar he had dozens of was...Les Paul's!.
Recently I've tried to downsize, and shops from NYC to Philly have turned down what I wanted to consign/trade/sell, and it wasn't because I wanted too much or had crappy stuff. They were just very selective about what they took in, had too much inventory, and don't want more to just sit there.
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Thank goodness the high-end consumers are propping up the economy for at least the next few months.
I would like to try one of those Sire Strats though. No more expensive guitars for me.
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