Have we Reached Peak Guitar? Used Guitar Apocalypse

[omphalopsychos]

Now if you had the CFO of Reverb presenting year-over-year metrics, or GC reporting same store sales, etc, that would be more credible.

Etsy (Reverb's parent company, which is publicly traded) reported that its Gross Merchandise sales in Q4 24 was $3.7 billion, down 6.8% year-over-year. The year-end Gross Merchandise Sales (GMS) for Reverb show a declining trend from 2021 to 2024:


2021: $948.0 million
2022: $942.5 million (down 0.6%)
2023: $942.1 million (basically stable)
2024: $917.9 million (down 2.6%)

All of this data is publicly reported here Attention Required! | Cloudflare Read the Q4 press releases from each year for year end GMS reporting.

[Mick-7]

Now if you had the CFO of Reverb presenting year-over-year metrics, or GC reporting same store sales, etc, that would be more credible.

I think they'd prefer the public didn't have that information. As Gary said in his video, Reverb eliminated their "sold items" feature so you can no longer see the sales price history of instruments. Fortunately eBay still has this feature, buyers love it for obvious reasons but I suspect that sellers feel differently about it.

[Stringswinger]

I think they'd prefer the public didn't have that information. As Gary said in his video, Reverb eliminated their "sold items" feature so you can no longer see the sales price history of instruments. Fortunately eBay still has this feature, buyers love it for obvious reasons but I suspect that sellers feel differently about it.

I am able to see what sold on Reverb. It only shows the asking price when I do that, but if you click on a sold item and it did not have a best offer button, you can deduce that it sold for it's asking price.

[Mick-7]

I am able to see what sold on Reverb. It only shows the asking price when I do that, but if you click on a sold item and it did not have a best offer button, you can deduce that it sold for it's asking price.

Could you post an example of such a listing? - because I am not seeing it.

Also, many listings don't say "sold" any more, just "ended," which could mean the item was not sold.

For example: Hamer Artist Korina - Reverb.com

[Stringswinger]

Could you post an example of such a listing? - because I am not seeing it.

Also, many listings don't say "sold" any more, just "ended," which could mean the item was not sold.

For example: Hamer Artist Korina - Reverb.com

Here is one:
Just a moment...

[omphalopsychos]

I think they'd prefer the public didn't have that information.

They're a publicly traded company and share their annual revenue and sales numbers. See my post above.

[Mick-7]

Here is one: Just a moment...

o.k., thanks, but I think that most Reverb listings take offers, and the "ended" label seems to be trending. By and large, the site is fairly opaque to buyers, of course there's always Google search but it's a hassle.

[Stringswinger]

o.k., thanks, but I think that most Reverb listings take offers, and the "ended" label seems to be trending. By and large, the site is fairly opaque to buyers, of course there's always Google search but it's a hassle.

I think that when you see an item listed as ended rather than sold, it means that the item was either not sold or was sold outside of reverb.

Between EBay and Reverb, one can get a general idea about what stuff is selling for and one can use that information to buy and sell at close to market prices.

[AllanAllen]

In a Capitalist system, the little people will often be jealous of those who have done better and bitch about prices of things that they cannot afford (or bitch about those who can afford them). In a Socialist system the little people will often keep their mouths shut for fear of being sent to a reeducation camp. I prefer the Capitalist system. YMMV.

Incorrect, they bitch and moan about increased productivity and profits without increased wages. We have an 8 hour day and a 5 day work week because people died for it. We shouldn’t piss all of it away to keep the billionaire class.

If anything this current capitalist system feels like post socialism, where it’s failed and oligarchs have taken over. Oh wait….

[Cunamara]

Sergey Brin thinks all of Google's employees should be in the office for 60 hours a week.

[AllanAllen]

Sergey Brin thinks all of Google's employees should be in the office for 60 hours a week.

He can think whatever he wants, brave people died in Chicago so we wouldn't have to do that.

[Litterick]

In a Capitalist system, the little people will often be jealous of those who have done better and bitch about prices of things that they cannot afford (or bitch about those who can afford them). In a Socialist system the little people will often keep their mouths shut for fear of being sent to a reeducation camp. I prefer the Capitalist system. YMMV.

Many little people think they are big people, and only learn otherwise when a bigger person sits on them.

[Litterick]

Those seem like cherry picked examples though. Other things like vintage/retro video games and consoles as well as things like action figures have gone to higher prices than ever. Some auction houses that specialize in collectibles have continued (so far) to see record year after record year. It’s not as simple as the value of a few choice items declining. My point being, it is just as easy to pick a few other random indicators and arrive at the opposite conclusion.

I agree with Hammertone’s assessment with regard to the guitar market for what it’s worth.


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Watches, whiskey and wine are the biggest markets for luxury goods at auction. They are frequently cited as economic indicators. They are commodities traded as investments, not just as collectibles. I did not pick them to prove a point; I keep an eye on these markets because they matter. Video games and action figures are Gen X markets that sell at lower levels. They are newer, smaller and less significant.

The guitar market is not worth much. Jeff Beck's auction fetched $10.7 million. Magritte’s L’empire des lumières sold for $121.2 million.

[Hammertone]

Jeff Beck's auction fetched $10.7 million. Magritte’s L’empire des lumières sold for $121.2 million.

I was quite peeved when I was outbid at the last moment for Jeff’s oxblood Les Paul. £1,068,500 ($1,300,000). Damn! I really wanted it as a backup for my Tonequest LP.

[ThatRhythmMan]

Watches, whiskey and wine are the biggest markets for luxury goods at auction. They are frequently cited as economic indicators. They are commodities traded as investments, not just as collectibles. I did not pick them to prove a point; I keep an eye on these markets because they matter. Video games and action figures are Gen X markets that sell at lower levels. They are newer, smaller and less significant.

The guitar market is not worth much. Jeff Beck's auction fetched $10.7 million. Magritte’s L’empire des lumières sold for $121.2 million.

Ok, so you weren’t really talking about collectibles at all. You were more so talking about investments/inflation hedges, the REALLY high value items. That realm is only seen by guitars of historical significance. I’m not sure how they pertain to the guitar market at large.


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[Litterick]

Ok, so you weren’t really talking about collectibles at all. You were more so talking about investments/inflation hedges, the REALLY high value items. That realm is only seen by guitars of historical significance. I’m not sure how they pertain to the guitar market at large.


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I said they were 'commodities traded as investments, not just as collectibles.' They are both investments and collectibles. Many guitar collectors see their guitars as such. Watches, Whiskey and Wine are not close to being 'the REALLY high value items', which are works of art.

I did not say these commodities pertain to the guitar market at large. Their falling values are relevant to the vintage and rare end of the guitar market, where guitars are collected as both investments and commodities, where owners expect their purchases to rise in value.

[Doctor Jeff]

Sergey Brin thinks all of Google's employees should be in the office for 60 hours a week.

LOL my son works for Google. He moved into the new building--the large half-domes that look like women's breasts from the air.

I think he really really likes what he's doing. (Though admittedly I'm not quite sure what he does. Something to do with ad metrics.) I've certainly never heard him complain about working there.

They have a lot of amenities like free or cheap food, recreation, gym, etc. The idea is that you will want to spend more time there and be more productive. Seems to work for him and his peers.

[nevershouldhavesoldit]

They are frequently cited as economic indicators. They are commodities traded as investments, not just as collectibles.

FWIW, commodities are goods that are all virtually interchangeable with each other, are generally produced in large quantities, and are differentiated only by price. The market in which they are sold treats them all the same. Potatoes are commodities, as are wheat, gold, and petroleum.

Collectibles are not commodities. Guitars are not commodities. Natural gas and electricity are commodities.

[Litterick]

FWIW, commodities are goods that are all virtually interchangeable with each other, are generally produced in large quantities, and are differentiated only by price. The market in which they are sold treats them all the same. Potatoes are commodities, as are wheat, gold, and petroleum.

Collectibles are not commodities. Guitars are not commodities. Natural gas and electricity are commodities.

I am disappointed to find you do not read Marx:

The wealth of societies in which a capitalistic mode of production prevails, appears as a ‘gigantic collection of commodities’ and the singular commodity appears as the elementary form of wealth. Our investigation begins accordingly with the analysis of the commodity.

A commodity is, in the first place, an object outside of us, a thing that by its properties satisfies human wants of some sort or another. The nature of such wants, whether, for instance, they spring from the stomach or from fancy, makes no difference. Neither are we here concerned to know how the object satisfies these wants, whether directly as means of subsistence, or indirectly as means of production.

Karl Marx, Capital; Chapter 1. Translated by Albert Dragstedt, 1976.

[Doctor Jeff]

I am disappointed to find you do not read Marx:

The wealth of societies in which a capitalistic mode of production prevails, appears as a ‘gigantic collection of commodities’ and the singular commodity appears as the elementary form of wealth. Our investigation begins accordingly with the analysis of the commodity.

A commodity is, in the first place, an object outside of us, a thing that by its properties satisfies human wants of some sort or another. The nature of such wants, whether, for instance, they spring from the stomach or from fancy, makes no difference. Neither are we here concerned to know how the object satisfies these wants, whether directly as means of subsistence, or indirectly as means of production.

Karl Marx, Capital; Chapter 1. Translated by Albert Dragstedt, 1976.

I haven’t read Marx in a long time, and found him very laborious when I read him BITD, but I think you are implying a very reductive definition of commodity.

Wheat is a commodity. Steel is a commodity. Most consumer items are not pure commodities though.

As Wiki points out:

In economics, the term commodity is used specifically for economic goods that have full or partial but substantial fungibility; that is, the market treats their instances as equivalent or nearly so with no regard to who produced them. Karl Marx described this property as follows: "From the taste of wheat, it is not possible to tell who produced it, a Russian serf, a French peasant or an English capitalist." Petroleum and copper are examples of commodity goods: their supply and demand are a part of one universal market.

Non-commodity items such as stereo systems have many aspects of product differentiation, such as the brand, the user interface and the perceived quality. The demand for one type of stereo may be much larger than demand for another.

[omphalopsychos]

You’re mixing up two meanings of “commodity.” In modern economics, a commodity is a fungible good—something interchangeable like oil, wheat, or gold. Guitars, especially vintage or collectible ones, don’t fit because their value depends on brand, condition, and rarity. If you’re talking about resale markets and price elasticity, then no, guitars aren’t commodities in the economic sense.

Marx used “commodity” differently. In Capital, any good produced for exchange rather than personal use is a commodity, including guitars, art, and even labor. This definition describes the role of goods in capitalism, not their fungibility in trade. If you’re making a critique of capitalism, then yes, guitars are commodities—but that doesn’t tell us anything useful about their market behavior. Mixing these definitions just causes confusion.

Reading is cool especially when mixed with comprehending.

[Litterick]

You’re mixing up two meanings of “commodity.” In modern economics, a commodity is a fungible good—something interchangeable like oil, wheat, or gold. Guitars, especially vintage or collectible ones, don’t fit because their value depends on brand, condition, and rarity. If you’re talking about resale markets and price elasticity, then no, guitars aren’t commodities in the economic sense.

Marx used “commodity” differently. In Capital, any good produced for exchange rather than personal use is a commodity, including guitars, art, and even labor. This definition describes the role of goods in capitalism, not their fungibility in trade. If you’re making a critique of capitalism, then yes, guitars are commodities—but that doesn’t tell us anything useful about their market behavior. Mixing these definitions just causes confusion.

Reading is cool especially when mixed with comprehending.

I do not know who you are addressing but, if you cannot comprehend anything I write, I would be happy to explain my meaning.

[Litterick]

I haven’t read Marx in a long time, and found him very laborious when I read him BITD, but I think you are implying a very reductive definition of commodity.

Wheat is a commodity. Steel is a commodity. Most consumer items are not pure commodities though.

As Wiki points out:

In economics, the term commodity is used specifically for economic goods that have full or partial but substantial fungibility; that is, the market treats their instances as equivalent or nearly so with no regard to who produced them. Karl Marx described this property as follows: "From the taste of wheat, it is not possible to tell who produced it, a Russian serf, a French peasant or an English capitalist." Petroleum and copper are examples of commodity goods: their supply and demand are a part of one universal market.

Non-commodity items such as stereo systems have many aspects of product differentiation, such as the brand, the user interface and the perceived quality. The demand for one type of stereo may be much larger than demand for another.

I quoted from the first chapter of Capital, with a link to the text. I think that is enough.

[AllanAllen]

Reading is cool especially when mixed with comprehending.

I'm experienceing a little bit of reading without comprehending right now. Working on The Divided Self by R D Laing.

[omphalopsychos]

I'm experienceing a little bit of reading without comprehending right now. Working on The Divided Self by R D Laing.

Reading without comprehending is also wonderful, I don't mean to diss it. For example, Samuel Beckett's Molloy is a wonderful read. I just read that stuff differently than I do Marx or econ theory, but I do know plenty of people who read Marx and Beckett the same way (I lived in Berkeley CA for 12 years).