Guitar buying frenzy is over

[RJVB]

I can't imagine one being worth more than $1500 today no matter how nice.

I don't think I've seen any under 2500 though - and there aren't that many for sale.

[wintermoon]

I don't think I've seen any under 2500 though - and there aren't that many for sale.

you need to check sold listings, they typically sell in the $1300-2000 range

[Doctor Jeff]

So there are many members here for whom a 10k$ Gibson is an expense they don't have to think twice about?

I grew up with classmates who lived in big mansion-like houses on landscaped terrain in the fancy part of the village, at least two cars and all the kids members of the local hockey, golf and tennis clubs. I also had classmates who lived in flats, popular neighbourhoods or social housing, with at most 1 car and just a membership of one of the soccerteams. Guess where you'd get just a single dry biscuit with your fancy cup of tea if you even got offered something.

Of course I'm sure there are people who scrimp and save to buy a $10K guitar, or at least have to justify it to the wife and kids. And they're nice people. Some of them might even be on this forum.

I just don't think they are the main reason higher-end guitar prices are so high and likely to stay high regardless of the state of the economy.

[mad dog]

I've sold several guitars and amps since last winter, and gifted one guitar to an old friend.

As the slowdown kicks in, I've learned (again) something I already knew. If absence of demand, any price is too high. Pricing items reasonably only matters when there is demand. When 50 percent lowball offers are the only game around, I just wait. No reason to virtually give good gear away unless giving is the goal.

Case in point: I had a rather rare MIM tele up for sale. One of the "car color" teles made in Mexico only in limited numbers, only in 2002. In perfect, as new condition. There was only one other such guitar that I knew of for sale in the US, priced well over what I was asking. No action on the sale, but for a number of lowballs. No, no thank you. And so on. Several chastised me for my high price. Which they knew and I knew was not high. (They would flip it at an even higher price, something we also both knew.) A couple novices even dissed the guitar, as if that would shame me into being taken advantage of. Finally a knowledgeable and motivated buyer came along, paid what I was asking.

If it's a good price, just wait it out. For those who need to sell right now, things are not great. Whereas trading is a great option in this environment.

[Litterick]

Does anyone have any experience with how collectibles do in a down market? My feeling is that they maintain their value to some extent as a hedge and also because if something is rare, there is still demand among a small group of well-heeled individuals.

Measuring Returns on Investments in Collectibles
Benjamin J. Burton and Joyce P. Jacobsen
Journal of Economic Perspectives—Volume 13, Number 4—Fall 1999—Pages 193–212

p200-201:

However, as outlined above, our own meta-analysis of the available evidence on collectibles supports the notion that the return on collectibles may be negatively related to stock market rises, but does not provide evidence that collectibles are a good hedge against stock price falls, as their returns remain flat in bear markets.

If collectibles could indeed provide a useful hedge against other financial assets, some financial institutions might want to offer mutual funds that invested in these items. However, fiduciary institutions have shied away from creating collectibles funds (though Salomon did establish a collectibles index)....The British Rail pension fund carried out what is apparently the only systematic institutional attempt to invest in collectibles. Sotheby’s encouraged BritRail to implement a plan in 1974 whereby it invested a significant amount of assets in art (and Sotheby’s acted as sole advisor). By 1979, BritRail held about 2.9 percent of its total pension fund assets as artworks—2,423 pieces in 20 categories, with 18 percent of value represented by Old Master paintings. Yet, the investments—with the benefit of hindsight—have proven suboptimal. By 1994, at which point most of the fund had been liquidated, the return was 13.8 percent per annum during a period when British stocks averaged 21.5 percent, although the portfolio had a slight edge over the U.S. stock market during this time.

[Herbie]

an L-48 while a fine guitar is next to the last in the Gibson food chain above the L-37, it screams student model.
I can't imagine one being worth more than $1500 today no matter how nice.

The market here in Europe (or non-USA) is a bit different than in US. If You buy from US You’ll have to pay shipping and VAT, normally about 25%.

And then I think that most of the jazz guitars are in US. They are rare in other countries. That rises the prices when You buy them.

That’s why it is difficult to compare guitar prices in US with non-US.

[RJVB]

And then I think that most of the jazz guitars are in US. They are rare in other countries. That rises the prices when You buy them.

Raises prices where, and why? Less demand should make prices go down, unless the (2nd hand) offer is disproportionally lower.

[Herbie]

Raises prices where, and why? Less demand should make prices go down, unless the (2nd hand) offer is disproportionally lower.

I meant that for example in EU the offerings are rare, so one can ask anything for a guitar that would be cheap (or "cheap") in US.

Here in Finland, the demand for jazz guitars is just a bit over zero, but when You buy, the prices are still higher than in mainland EU or in US because those guitars are so rare.

[bluejaybill]

I think the market is slowing and will continue at least with most high end archtops. That makes sense given what I am seeing in real life. I never eat out I do all the grocery shopping and cook for myself and my 23 year old son at times. The amount of money I am spending at grocery store is way up from year ago and the price of natural gas.

I used less natural gas this month than 1year ago and yet my bill is double this month. I could buy a dozen eggs for .99 at times. Now they are 2.39 a dozen. Milk was 1.69 a gallon now it is 3.06 a gallon. Jack's frozen pizza's I would get would be 4 for $10. They are not 3.99 each. Basically, the food bill is up, way up well over the inflation rate. Problem is we all have to eat every day. We don't have to play the guitar every day or get another one.

So far good beer is little more but I am not seeing the huge price increases in good beer. I paid $14.99 for a 12 pack of Sierra Nevada Pale Ale and that is pretty much been the price the last 2 years. But milk, meat, eats, and the staples are out of sight. It does not probably affect the wealthy but frankly many great guitars that are expensive and wanted are not owned and bought by the wealthy. d

I am going to have a Sierra Nevada PA this evening and play my Campellone..............glad I bought mine over 20 years ago!

So long as beer prices stay flat, and I can play my Campellone every night, I'm good too! Unfortunately mine is only a year or two old though.

Seriously though, for those of us who are retired, or near it, this has been a very trying time if you have any savings or investments. A very similar thing happened in 2008 and collectable (vintage) guitar prices went way down. That coupled with the smaller market for arch tops should depress pieces a bit. On the other hand, Gibson has stopped making them, and custom makers are booked years out. So it is hard to predict where prices are heading and I wouldn't automatically assume they are going down. Nor would I be buying them as an investment, except maybe the totally blue chip vintage guitars (though they went down in 2008 as well).

Probably a very good time to buy what you want to play, not expect them to appreciate, and in fact not be surprised if they go down in value, like they did historically.

But above all play them, and maybe be a little bit thankful that you still can!

[tbeltrans]

So long as beer prices stay flat, and I can play my Campellone every night, I'm good too! Unfortunately mine is only a year or two old though.

Seriously though, for those of us who are retired, or near it, this has been a very trying time if you have any savings or investments. A very similar thing happened in 2008 and collectable (vintage) guitar prices went way down. That coupled with the smaller market for arch tops should depress pieces a bit. On the other hand, Gibson has stopped making them, and custom makers are booked years out. So it is hard to predict where prices are heading and I wouldn't automatically assume they are going down. Nor would I be buying them as an investment, except maybe the totally blue chip vintage guitars (though they went down in 2008 as well).

Probably a very good time to buy what you want to play, not expect them to appreciate, and in fact not be surprised if they go down in value, like they did historically.

But above all play them, and maybe be a little bit thankful that you still can!

I wouldn't get to feeling too comfortable. At the rate things are going, a six pack of beer will soon cost TWO Campellones!

Tony

[ccroft]

I've been watching Archtop.com the past few months, it seems like the inventory is just sitting. Very little turnover, from what I've seen. Most of those guitars are over $4K.

True, but there's always exceptions. He had a B-120 listed last month that was sold in 24 hrs. Asking price was about what the first buyer would've paid if I remember right.

[bluejaybill]

I wouldn't get to feeling too comfortable. At the rate things are going, a six pack of beer will soon cost TWO Campellones!

Tony

Ironically, I went to the store yesterday to buy a 4 pack of my favorite IPA, which was already a bit of a splurge, and the price had gone up $3! Looking for affordable alternatives...

[bluejaybill]

True, but there's always exceptions. He had a B-120 listed last month that was sold in 24 hrs. Asking price was about what the first buyer would've paid if I remember right.

But there is no way to know what the final sale price was on that site, correct?

They never seem to want to do that, "an uneducated consumer is our best customer)!

Not really speaking specifically of that shop, I've noticed it at many others.

[tbeltrans]

Ironically, I went to the store yesterday to buy a 4 pack of my favorite IPA, which was already a bit of a splurge, and the price had gone up $3! Looking for affordable alternatives...

I wouldn't be at all surprised if bottled water now costs a Campellone.

Tony

[supersoul]

you need to check sold listings, they typically sell in the $1300-2000 range

I just noticed a Gibson L-48 on Berlin ebay-kleinanzeigen for €1850 negotiable.
1953 Gibson L 48 Jazz Gitarre F Hole Archtop in Mitte - Wedding | eBay Kleinanzeigen

[RJVB]

I just noticed a Gibson L-48 on Berlin ebay-kleinanzeigen for €1850 negotiable.
1953 Gibson L 48 Jazz Gitarre F Hole Archtop in Mitte - Wedding | eBay Kleinanzeigen

That one does have a hole almost im mitte ... maybe it was used in "Some Like It Hot"?

[supersoul]

That one does have a hole almost im mitte ... maybe it was used in "Some Like It Hot"?

I must confess that I don't understand the reference. But the hole wouldn't bother me, if the guitar and I were otherwise compatible.

[tbeltrans]

I just noticed a Gibson L-48 on Berlin ebay-kleinanzeigen for €1850 negotiable.
1953 Gibson L 48 Jazz Gitarre F Hole Archtop in Mitte - Wedding | eBay Kleinanzeigen

That guitar was built in my birth year. Scary to think it would be considered "vintage" today. People don't become vintage, they just get old.

Tony

[RJVB]

I must confess that I don't understand the reference. But the hole wouldn't bother me, if the guitar and I were otherwise compatible.

The reference to "Some Like it Hot"?
In that movie a double bass gets some bullet holes while fleeing the scene of a mob hit (and when later questioned about them the bassist answers "Erm, mice?" )

[jim777]

I wouldn't be at all surprised if bottled water now costs a Campellone.

Tony

You can get a very nice 50's L7 for 5 grand still, but a mid 60's Telecaster is twice that. How on Earth does that make any sense?!? A nice L7 is a sublime work of art, and as much as I like Telecasters (I have 2 of my own at the moment) they are basically cutting boards with necks bolted on to them.

[John A.]

You can get a very nice 50's L7 for 5 grand still, but a mid 60's Telecaster is twice that. How on Earth does that make any sense?!? A nice L7 is a sublime work of art, and as much as I like Telecasters (I have 2 of my own at the moment) they are basically cutting boards with necks bolted on to them.

Ever try to slice a tomato on top of an L7? Not a pretty experience. OTOH, a Tele with the finish relic'd off + an Amazing Ginsu knife = a perfect salad. Now you know why an old Tele is worth so much -- you can do so much more with it!

[ThatRhythmMan]

You can get a very nice 50's L7 for 5 grand still, but a mid 60's Telecaster is twice that. How on Earth does that make any sense?!? A nice L7 is a sublime work of art, and as much as I like Telecasters (I have 2 of my own at the moment) they are basically cutting boards with necks bolted on to them.

You can get a REALLY nice ‘50 L-7 for 4 grand still, a great playing player’s grade one for less than that. Ask me how I know!


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[ChazFromCali]

My frenzy cost me $665 bux. But then I'm a cheep bustard.

[EastwoodMike]

And here I was thinking the frenzy was around bored people stuck at home during Covid, with more discretionary spending money in their pockets. Compounding this was factories ramping down or closing during the pandemic causing supply chain backlogs which in turn help drive prices up.

now that lifestyles are returning back to normal (back to the office, restaurants open again) that spare time or money has evaporated and we have a hangover called inflation.

I think people are no longer cash or time rich and supply chains have stabilised. Those that would have bought a guitar have so demand has petered off.

[jads57]

Well one thing for sure it always goes up and down in cycles. And like comedy or finding the right one or selling it, it’s all in the timing and having patience!