long range value of an archtop

[brad4d8]

I have never bought a guitar with the idea that it would increase in value, but most of my guitars are worth more now than when I bought them. The few exceptions are ones that I bought at the recent peak in prices for used instruments that have fallen a little in average selling price since then. I fully expect them to go back up as the economy changes.
That said, would I ever consider buying an investment quality instrument? Only if it were also one I would enjoy playing, not one that would sit in a display case or its equivalent instead of being played. Oh, yes, I'd also have to have the disposable income needed, can you say lottery winner?
Brad

[tonyknight]

I have a number of good guitars - nothing worth six figures! I could probably sell any of them for more than I paid. BUT, by if I took the time to work out the original amounts I paid adjusted for inflation, I reckon I'd break even on them. Which is really not bad given that I didn't buy any of them with any interest in ever selling them!

That said, my crystal ball says that the next 5-10 years are going to see the world's economies crash worse than the Fukushima earthquake. So the only things that will have value will be stuff we can eat :-) I hope it's wrong, but I don't think so... That's why my next guitar will have great acoustic qualities in case my amps no longer work :-)

But Eastmans seem to be excellent value for their quality, that's for sure.

[BigDaddyLoveHandles]

That said, my crystal ball says that the next 5-10 years are going to see the world's economies crash worse than the Fukushima earthquake. So the only things that will have value will be stuff we can eat :-) I hope it's wrong, but I don't think so...

I've got my shopping cart picked out!

[kamlapati]

As many mentioned above, it's crazy that an old L-5 is cheaper than either an old Strat or a new L-5... totally blows my mind.

I think that means that you should all go out and buy an old L-5. Really.

(Mine are not for sale. They get played.)

[stevedenver]

as a newbie
jazz guitars are a tiny niche-so
i would think one would want to be toward the top items of interest in that tiny market

to widen the appeal to the gratest number of interested buyers-(not simply jazz players)

to a non-jazzer, GIbson, D'A's (both) Stromberg, Epis etc,very likely too now Bennys and others getting bigger press

those not in the know, will continue to seek these iconic names-if nothing else because they are recognizable, adn the overall reputation for quality as well as historic pedigree

buy low, sell high,
i too never buy with an idea of making money-but i have chosen names and prices points as a hedge against devaluation as well as future saleability

there are not a lot of buyers for 5K+ no less 10K+ insturments-
many more at 1-3K-

there are so many people that simply feel good or pair security with fender, gibson, martin etc-and increasing retail prices will tend to push up used prices

so all of this may effect your choice

with no insult to anyone, i can think of very few asian made instruments that are used and premium-of course there some, but in my experience, its not that common

otoh-quality is quality no matter who makes it-the issue however will be what the average buyer will choose, given price and options-id far sooner buy a norlin (and i have many) than a yamaha or ibanez counterpart-because overall gibson (LPs at least) are pretty easily sold (until fashion changes)

as for eastman-
IF they become noted for super quality
and
retail and street prices rise
and they stay a leader in the price range
and the field stays narrow
they may well hold value

and.....
we may well be on a cusp-
i think it is a golden era of guitars -
but choice and traditional woods may be another thing soon

fwiw i passed on an eastman f mando in favor of a gibson f,
the eastman was bout 1500 as i recall-and i thought this was a sizable amount

so, i instead paid a bit more than more than twice the price for a used gibson f,

because it seemed a better value and prices on gibsons are not dropping
(-and i also greatly preferred the instrument)

-not a dis-

an example- and i imagine others think similarly when spending over a thousand dollars

[oldane]

In order to make big money trading in a market (that goes for all commodities, financial products etc., not only guitars), one must buy when most others think they should sell out and sell when most others want to buy like crazy. The problem is, it's very hard to see when that is. How can you know that the guitar everyone frowns at now will be a collectors item in 30 years?

Who would have guessed that Kay and Harmony guitars would be in demand by some collectors these days. In their time they were low end utility guitars for people who couldn't afford Gibsons and the likes. They were guitars you only kept untill you had scraped money together for a better instrument. Leo Fender likely didn't foresee the "Stratmania" that raged some years ago - and with his engineers mindset he likely would have been put back a little by it because he designed the Strat as a utility guitar, not as a collecters item, as opposed to more recent "limited edition" guitars and very expensive luthier built instruments (Scott Chinerys blue guitars is an example). Even original Strombergs and D'Angelicos were built for working musicians, not collectors. Freddie Green used his Strombergs on the road until the value shot up after Elmer Strombergs death. Then he got nervous about taking them on the road and got the Gretsch instead.

I think it pretty unpredictable.

[Gramps]

I was just in the market for a new archtop and went shopping. I had about 6 guitars to choose from in my price range and half of them were older Gibsons that would at least retain their value over the time I owned them. On the other hand there was an Eastman (one of 2 of the same model) that just spoke to me so I had to decide if I wanted an investment or a good tool.

For me it was an easy decision. I might loose a couple hundred dollars if I have to sell it but it felt and sounded good to play.

We each have to set our own criteria and choose based on that.

[cmajor9]

With very rare exceptions, guitars should not be considered investments. They're a luxury expense (unless you're gigging for $$). If you take good care of your guitars and are lucky, every once and awhile you might get back what you put into them. To put it a different way, the investment you're making is in you - in your happiness, interest, fulfillment, or development as a musician.

Although I wish it weren't so, looking to the future I'm inclined to agree with tonyknight; we're all in for some rough times ahead. Things like expensive 'relic' Les Pauls will start to seem pretty frivolous if that happens.

[Bill C]

What saddens me is this "parting out" BS - where you see the hulk of a 50's 175 being sold on ebay and the same seller is selling all the parts, especially those that are interchangable with Les Pauls, for insane prices.

[Gramps]

Bill C,

Agreed. I've been seeing that more and more.

[kambor]

I don't want to offend anyone, but this mentality of "buying low, selling high" doesn't work anymore. Not with cars, not with houses, and definitely not with guitars.

There's always one or two guys that still make money like this, but if you think closely about it, the very market rules dictate that for someone to win, someone has to loose something. Everybody can't win.

Therefore, in a market where prices have gone so high that there are now factory guitars that are more expensive that a fine custom made archtop (even from big names), and given the new wave of interest in archtops which gives us players the chance to play inexpensive but good quality archtops (Ibanez, Peerless, Eastmans...), I don't get how anyone can suggest investing on guitars. This market has opened so much that is not profitable anymore. That is, for resellers. The manufacturers will make money as long as there's interest in this kind of guitars, given they don't go crazy with prices.

Think about it. Who would have said 10 years ago that Korean, Indonesian, or even some Chinese guitars would reach this degree of quality? Who would have thought that a japanese brand would have the same high regard from customers than a US one?

The US was the main manufacturer once, and the best instruments came from there. But it's all over now. They still make amazing instruments, but they've become luxury items, not something a jazz struggling musician would buy to work.

Rant over, I hope not to annoy anyone

[stevedenver]

I don't want to offend anyone, but this mentality of "buying low, selling high" doesn't work anymore. Not with cars, not with houses, and definitely not with guitars.

There's always one or two guys that still make money like this, but if you think closely about it, the very market rules dictate that for someone to win, someone has to loose something. Everybody can't win.

Therefore, in a market where prices have gone so high that there are now factory guitars that are more expensive that a fine custom made archtop (even from big names), and given the new wave of interest in archtops which gives us players the chance to play inexpensive but good quality archtops (Ibanez, Peerless, Eastmans...), I don't get how anyone can suggest investing on guitars. This market has opened so much that is not profitable anymore. That is, for resellers. The manufacturers will make money as long as there's interest in this kind of guitars, given they don't go crazy with prices.

Think about it. Who would have said 10 years ago that Korean, Indonesian, or even some Chinese guitars would reach this degree of quality? Who would have thought that a japanese brand would have the same high regard from customers than a US one?

The US was the main manufacturer once, and the best instruments came from there. But it's all over now. They still make amazing instruments, but they've become luxury items, not something a jazz struggling musician would buy to work.

Rant over, I hope not to annoy anyone

well i understand you

but i still think, that if, for example , a used ES 175, sells for 2500, (just an academic example) and you can find one for 2000 or less, then more or less, you will recover what you spent, even after reasonable use and possibly costs of selling-

and the example of someone has to lose has always been the case
right now, due to the economy, things are being sold, and sometimes you can get a better deal

i am not suggesting 'investing', but i am suggesting that for soemthing that you may, at somtime in the future sell, that some things will hold value or appreciate with the march of time and inflation-and these things may or not be sold new or used-

what i have seen in many things is that an established market seems to continue on-not always- but more or less

for example used les pauls of about twenty years age have risen steadily since i began to follow things-

what i think i disagree about is that the market has shrunk-in some ways yes-low end competition-but for fender strats and teles, 335s LPs-imho those things are 'branded' people want fender or gibson-and so long a s those companies can push the retail price to what the market will bear, used items will be affected

your dead right that if a new LP drosp from 2500 to 1500-then used items , except for something special, may/will plummet-

and youre right, everybody cant win

ive often thought that at some point, the fashion trends will change-and then youll see 50000 old guys unable to sell their used strats and lesters-to my dad-a 38 ford was a cool old collectable-to me a generation later-it was an old car-no nostaligia or cultural associations for added value

the time will come when jimmy page signature or slash-or god forbid, tom delonge (who?) is as relevant as roy smeck in terms of wow factor

[rpguitar]

Look for classic guitars with a significant history and/or artist association. Watch the market over time, and study the real world range that things sell for (not just the crazy asking prices). Find a good one in good to excellent condition, with no stupid human tricks having been performed on it during its past. Pay a reasonable price. Play the heck out of it and enjoy it. Then, if you want or need to sell it, aim to recoup your cost but don't expect profits. It's the cycle of guitar karma.

Don't expect modern, inexpensive, or common instruments to appreciate - especially if you buy them new. They will, repeat WILL depreciate. Sometimes dramatically. Try to re-sell an Eastman that you bought new... Ouch. Great guitars, no doubt, but not an investment in any way.

[tonyknight]

BDLH +1 - is that a gun in your pocket - eh, hand? :-)
Tony

[teleman3726]

Well, that I understand. I never understood the cliches (plays like "butter"??) "Vintage" is a marketing term, mostly. Has nothing to do with quality--in fact, it's hard to conceive of anything from the 70s--when I was a kid--as being "vintage".

Seriously, who has money in this economy to throw around for G.A.S. when gas is expensive enough?? I'm just thankful that I have no need for any more guitars (except maybe for a 7 string arch top down the road, but I have to be good enough to know how to play it correctly. That's gonna take a lot of time.)

You reach a point where you really like the instruments you have, know matter how few they may number, and have no need for any more---because what you really want to do is concentrate on the MUSIC.

That said, it still blows my mind that a late 50s/early 60s solid body is worth much more than an L5. Now THAT is marketing 101, right there, particularly if it's a bolt on plank guitar.

Really beginning to agree with the basic sentiment of the majority of posters here on the "vintage" market and the extent to which guitars (generally) constitute an investment. I have a number of guitars, several of which I want to unload. My interest now is in becoming a better musician. This economy is so crappy and so many people are leary of making any significant purchases that the notion of higher prices simply because a guitar ages is silly. Also, I've played many of the "vintage" guitars out there, from 175s from the 50s to teles from the same era. Some were fine, others were absolute crap, and certainly not even close to warranting the prices being asked. Buy what you can afford and what you enjoy.
Incidentally, I subscribe to Vintage Guitar because it's informative and has good reviews of new CDs, etc.

[Steve Z]

Don't expect modern, inexpensive, or common instruments to appreciate - especially if you buy them new. They will, repeat WILL depreciate. Sometimes dramatically. Try to re-sell an Eastman that you bought new... Ouch. Great guitars, no doubt, but not an investment in any way.

Well stated, and very true. This has been my experience selling an Eastman as well as several high end archtop guitars in the past six months.

I only buy used now and it has to be a great bargain, or I will pass and keep looking.