33% of all electric guitars - 2 million - now made in one place

[DawgBone]

To be fair, that's a dated view of the (evolving) Chinese implementation of communism. China is not like the old Soviet Union. Since Mao died, leader-by-leader China has intentionally evolved its system to be far more adaptive to modern circumstances than was true for Soviet communism. And to borrow, at least temporarily, from capitalism. China certainly still has the strongly authoritarian, single-party, aka totalitarian, political system associated with communism, but in the political economy it has been running a sort of "state-managed capitalism" to drive economic success. The state has strong sway in capital allocations but innovation (and resulting entrepreneurship within the bounds of the state) is quite strong. The state no longer dwarfs the private market. The private sector is now delivering more than 60% of China's GDP, about 70% of its innovation, and 80% of urban jobs. In 2024, China granted over 1,000,000 patents for invention, over 13% more than in 2023. Though US AI patents were considered a higher class overall, China issued about 50% more patents for AI than the US did. Meanwhile, patents issued to domestic entities in the US declined by about 4% last year. Chinese entrepreneurs and companies also filed more AI patent applications than US companies in the last year, continuing to present. US patent growth in 2024 was driven by a 3.8% rise in foreign applications, including Chinese.

To be sure, in China the state can capriciously intervene in private market and private company affairs, but while such interventions can have a throttling effect on the private Chinese economy, it is far from choked.

China is also shifting to more development of home-grown brands in all sectors of the consumer & commercial economy. I do business with some entrepreneurs in China, and while they have their differences with their government, they are far from miserable or lacking financial incentives. It will do Americans no good at all in the US' international "co-opetition" with China, to view Chinese potential through the dated lens of sclerotic, ossified Soviet communism. That dismissive perspective will feed damaging underestimation of China and impede American understanding of with whom it is competing.

Guitar design is largely American and British due to the music that exploded guitar's popularity, and vice-versa. Asian guitar makers, whether Chinese, Japanese, Korean, Indonesian have copied or emulated the western markers laid down for the instrument, in part because that's what sold when they started guitar exports, and then that's what they were contracted to produce. But it would only take a Chinese Eddie Van Halen or Steve Vai, for example, to leverage a particular Chinese design fillip to guitar that makes a music innovation possible and popular, to put a China vector on the instrument. Give it time.

Phil

As someone who released an EPK in 2015 and had all the music and even the CD artwork stolen and sold out of Shanghai China on ebay for the same price I was able to produce it for, I completely disagree with your analysis. They produce nothing that doesn't originate from a design stolen from someone in the west other than maybe chopsticks.

[213Cobra]

As someone who released an EPK in 2015 and had all the music and even the CD artwork stolen and sold out of Shanghai China on ebay for the same price I was able to produce it for, I completely disagree with your analysis. They produce nothing that doesn't originate from a design stolen from someone in the west other than maybe chopsticks.

That happens and I don't doubt it happened to you. But real innovation is surging there regardless how much copying goes on still.

You have what is referred to as a "locally and temporally-restricted perspective". Plus, 2015 was a decade ago. China has become substantially different and more capable overall in ten years since. The big picture data is much more informative and real.

Phil

[DawgBone]

That happens and I don't doubt it happened to you. But real innovation is surging there regardless how much copying goes on still.

You have what is referred to as a "locally and temporally-restricted perspective". Plus, 2015 was a decade ago. China has become substantially different and more capable overall in ten years since. The big picture data is much more informative and real.

Phil

You have given what is referred to as a long winded collegiate level lecture, which means jack in the real world, ten years or not. China hasn't innovated or led the world in anything except oppression and slave labor.

[213Cobra]

You have given what is referred to as a long winded collegiate level lecture, which means jack in the real world, ten years or not. China hasn't innovated or led the world in anything except oppression and slave labor.

If I were Xi Jinping reading your post, I'd be thinking "Yes, please keep on believing this, you fools. Please."

Right now China leads the world in electric vehicle batteries, including chemistry, construction, charging rates, etc. Tesla isn't competitive anymore in that respect, there. Chinese are leading or competing with the best in electric motors efficiency. They've built 27,962 miles of high speed rail that we cannot build at all without foreign sourcing, even if we wanted. In fact, we haven't built any. They are innovating around trade restrictions for chips and AI. They are leading the world in solar panel efficiency. Their manufacturing innovations make it possible to build products there that we in the US can't attempt today. Their middle class population exceeds that of the US, which corresponds to a large increase in educated population. The idea that Americans can write off the burgeoning intellectual capital in China as unable to innovate is an exercise in bald-faced, willful ignorance.

The US has many structural advantages for continuing its innovation record, but the current administration is actively tearing apart those advantages every day in 2025 and ongoing. The campaign against education, science, immigration and creative thinking are already proving throttling to our own economy and enabling to other countries. Our embedded religious revanchism in the US isn't helping. And we think China is our primary competitor now? It's not 1996 anymore. There's no upside in thinking China can't innovate.

But Xi is counting on you believing it.

Phil

[Navdeep_Singh]

Solving the issue of electronics on guitars is very low-hanging fruit in terms of technology. The key and bigger issue is costs and control of supply chains. Whereas, most of modern production is based on the old Toyota model of “Just-in-Time” procurement of parts that are located in other places and in other countries along a decentralized manner, The factories in China have centralized access to supply chains, actors the board. This is a coutnry that has the most dark factories, the most use of robots, driverless pickup trucks using solar power to transport coal in Inner Mongolia, automated cotton picking via drones and AI.

The US has much more need for Chinese imports and access to the China market than China does of the US market. The only thing China wants is the highest end computer chips from Nvidea. And NVidea is happy to supply them, even if they have to make them in China. But they are solving their high end computer chip production supply, internally. Including new breath-through technologies.

For every $1 China makes on US imports, US firms make $7 from this $1. Moreover, every top S&P 500 firm is in China, and the Chinese market is a huge source of profits for US companies there.

There is an American guy living in China, whose YouTube channel I follow closely, he’s a former finance big wig in the US and now he follows Chinese supply chains very closely. They are killing the US in EVERY Sector. And the gap is widening. Indeed, Chinese labor, as measured by value and output, is more productive than any other country. In this country, deflation would be considered a catastrophe by US finance analysts. In China, and in the rest of Asia, deflation is a godsend. AESEAN has a population almost as big as the EU, and has a bigger trade bloc with China than the US does with China. Trade, production, especially high end infrastructure, what the 3rd world really needs, is booming.

[lammie200]

...And we think China is our primary competitor now? It's not 1996 anymore. There's no upside in thinking China can't innovate.

But Xi is counting on you believing it.

Phil

I was in China in 1996. You could see the writing on the wall. They were starting to leapfrog technologies quickly to get on the same page as the western world. Wireless was one of them. In some cases that bought complete old factories and moved them in. But you could see a very short learning curve happening for them to copy and innovate at the same time. Wishing away the copying is pollyannaish.

Solving the issue of electronics on guitars is very low-hanging fruit in terms of technology. The key and bigger issue is costs and control of supply chains...

That is why I said that China very easily could use the momentum they have now to up their entire guitar production game in terms of quality by manufacturing everything such that buyers will not be dependent on USA made pickups, for example. They will eventually have their own scores of Josphinas winding them up.

[Navdeep_Singh]

This is an amazing graphic. This goes to the issue of PPP as well, as a better indicator of wealth than nominal GDP. Moreover, most Chinese families own their home, pay NO property tax, have much cheaper utility prices, spend far less on usually much better quality (fresh) food, have world class public transport that is very affordable, and have a much higher savings rate. This is what deflation means, for them.

As the video pointed out, there was some sort of rock and roll boom in the youth of China at some point. I’ve seen signs of this as well, in India. Lots of people other than the US and UK are getting into what was western popular music. (We won’t get into how much Chinese classical musicians are saving European classical music, with their 40 million pianists and violinists, and massive ensemble of civic orchestras).

[Stringswinger]

Capitalism combined with an authoritarian regime (It makes little difference whether they call themselves Communists or National Socialists) is a potent force to be reckoned with. The Democratic West had problems with the Nazi's during WW2 and will have problems with the CCP in the future.

I would rather live under Democracy, no matter how much of a disadvantage that involves. And I would rather play a US made Gibson or Fender guitar than any Chinese made guitar that I have ever played. YMMV

[Spook410]

We get a lot of diversity in US government. When an individual or corporation buys a US politician they often do so to make money across various industries rather than the Chinese model of all power to the communist party.

We did get left behind on electric vehicles. Waiting for GM, Ford, and Tesla to rip off Chinese designs so an electric car is worth having.

In other areas we surge ahead. And others will copy that. Nvidia comes to mind.

As for me, I would rather live in a corrupt state run by wealthy elites (which is what the US is and I don't mean just Trump but the entire government) rather than an authoritarian regime.

And when it comes to guitars, I'm happy to play a Yunzhi or Wu because I like the guitars. I would also probably like the people who made them.

[Mick-7]

We did get left behind on electric vehicles. Waiting for GM, Ford, and Tesla to rip off Chinese designs so an electric car is worth having.

The designs are American, when the government (the CCP) subsidizes the auto industry, politicians are not pimping for the fossil fuel industry, and labor is strictly controlled, the outcome is quite different - as Stringswinger suggested.

I believe Tesla's main manufacturing plant is in China, Elon Musk has a close relationship with the Chinese government.

[lammie200]

...I believe Tesla's main manufacturing plant is in China, Elon Musk has a close relationship with the Chinese government.

List of Tesla factories - Wikipedia

[Spook410]

The designs are American..

Electric vehicles have been around a long time. The Chinese did learn from existing designs but their innovations in battery capacity, fast charging, and efficient manufacturing have moved well beyond the west. In the future, we'll be copying from them.

It's odd to me that people seem to think the Chinese can't innovate. They did build an economy on the backs of western tech and markets, but it's really naive to think they won't move forward on their own.

[Navdeep_Singh]

Electric vehicles have been around a long time. The Chinese did learn from existing designs but their innovations in battery capacity, fast charging, and efficient manufacturing have moved well beyond the west. In the future, we'll be copying from them.

It's odd to me that people seem to think the Chinese can't innovate. They did build an economy on the backs of western tech and markets, but it's really naive to think they won't move forward on their own.

The # of STEM graduates in China can only remotely be matched by India. The US is far down that list and many of those with advanced degrees are Foreign graduates. China invests 4 times as much on education as on their military (their military is down 2 million men since 1985, and down 300,000 recently); in the US, that ratio is reversed. China spent a ton on upgrading their own universities, and many are now top notch and world class. Every university is also linked with industry, able to leverage research. BYD now employs over 1 million workers and average wages for BYD workers went up 600% from 11,000 RMB to 68,000 RMB, over the course of a decade. You can live quite nicely on 68K RMB in every major city except Shanghai, Hong Kong, and Beijing.

Chinese firms basically developed along the lines of Japanese firms before them, which stated with massive state aid, after the Meiji Restoration and after WW2. Lots of official state support, and the state compels firms to compete, ruthlessly, There is no big waste on speculation and the casino economy. Much official US GDP figures are super inflated, whereas debt is counted as “INCOME”, as is potential “rent” by homeowners who own their home but don’t actually rent it out but rather live in it. The US economy is basically a casino economy.

They have 5G networks in every area of China now, almost in every village. and that’s saying something. Here’s a startling stat: China used more cement in 2020-2023 than the US used in the entire 20th century. They still have massive plans to urbanize another 200-300 million people. Right now, the rate of urbanization is like 66% (almost double that of India). The planned organization of urbanization is helped by the hundreds of years old Hokou registration system, that prevents the development of massive urban slums like that which exists in India.

[lammie200]

I would like to get a take on where China is with steel now. Back in the mid-to-late ‘90s they had a fair amount of raw material but very few mills for shaping finish product. Steel shapes came from Japan from what I know. They were building 30-35 feet high rises with abandon out of concrete, but very few steel frame high rises. I would imagine that they have upped their game in that as well.

I guess I answered my own question.

File:Evolution production acier pays.svg - Wikimedia Commons

[213Cobra]

In 2024, China produced about 12X as much steel as the US did. Over 1,000 million metric tons vs just under 80 mmt for the US. If you've been to any of the major China cities or even seen photographs from the last 20 years, you'd see they are well beyond building just low-rise concrete buildings. The last year that China's steel production was less than the USA's was 1990, 35 years ago.

China now has the largest number of qualified skyscrapers in the world, surpassing the US (at 870). In fact it has more than the next 11 countries combined, with about 3000 steel-frame buildings over 490' / 150m tall. 106 buildings in China are "supertall," 300m/980' or taller. These were all built by Chinese construction companies using predominantly Chinese steel. This is all -- and more -- easily found via search.

Phil

[Ol' Fret]

Thanks, Navdeep-Singh, for doing some frank talking and giving here some of the clear-cut points on the Chinese economy!

China is not only ramping up their electric, but also their acoustic guitar production, and even the quality of their archtop guitars is continously increasing - in every respect. Just one small example: D'Aquisto (the most European guitar makers anyway) favored the use of Alpine spruce and European maple for his guitars, and this is what China has been buying by the containers for years. Meanwhile, fine Alpine spruce is becoming quite scarce ... Btw., China has produced more container ships in the last 10 years alone than the United States has produced since 1945.
And so on, and so forth.

The Western world might have been able to resist this course of events a little more if it had stuck together. I'm not just talking about American exceptionalism, which is increasingly calling itself into question.
Well, with Americans, practically every second of whom seems resistant to facts, not to mention a government that massively angers not only long-standing partners, we have to prepare ourselves, for better or for worse, for a coming change in the world order—and very quickly in the guitar business.
Everything is in flux, or some events repeat themselves in the same or at least a similar form, such as actually the 1932 Prussian coup d'etat, even if many are unaware of it or knowingly turn a blind eye to it.

Terms like capitalism, communism, conservativism, religions, etc., don't mean a thing because they can be - and are - manipulated by will and do not exist in their pure form anyway. Just my two cents.

[GuyBoden]

China won the World Snooker championship this year.

China spent money on creating a great snooker academy, so it was just a matter of time before a player from China won the World Snooker championship.

[Christian Miller]

I suspect they’ll be on the moon before America gets back.

Tbf the US cut them out of international collaborations including the ISS (they didn’t do that with the Soviet Union even) so they said ‘fine we’ll do it ourselves.”

The US should now be viewing them as a near equal or even equal. China is also now apparently better liked than US internationally so they may be overtaking in terms of soft power.

Tbf it was the US’s race to lose. In both cases.

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[Spook410]

The # of STEM graduates in China can only remotely be matched by India.

Fine.. fine. Bet that can't match the US in the number of Gender Studies, Communications, and General Liberal Arts grads...

[Stringswinger]

Fine.. fine. Bet that can't match the US in the number of Gender Studies, Communications, and General Liberal Arts grads...

When the world has a shortage of underwater basket weavers, the USA will be at the ready.

[Christian Miller]

Rather than get into the political specifics I’d like to share a story from my everyday life that sums up the situation the developed world faces haha.

Very bright student - mum works for a big US tech firm - we always talk a bit about science. “What would you like to do when you grow up” I ask curiously expecting to hear “astronaut”, “computer scientist”, “rocket engineer” or even “video games designer.”

“A twitch streamer”

Here we are. I notice many academics with communication skills who scrub up well are realising the money is in podcasts.

We’re doomed! Doomed I tell you haha…


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[Tal_175]

People who recently visited China say that they are way ahead of the West in terms of integration and application of technology. Their advantage is no longer in cheap labor but in know-how and hi-tech. They are already moving to fully automated dark factories when some in the West are trying to build the future by bringing back coal mines and flip-flop factories:

China enters new era of ‘Dark Factories’ with no lights, no workers – TexSPACE Today

[lammie200]

Rather than get into the political specifics...

..already moving to fully automated dark factories...

Unfortunately this forum is doing pretty well these days at creating dark threads that disappear. My money is on this one to be destined to that fate as well.

[Christian Miller]

People who recently visited China say that they are way ahead of the West in terms of integration and application of technology. Their advantage is no longer in cheap labor but in know-how and hi-tech. They are already moving to fully automated dark factories when some in the West are trying to build the future by bringing back coal mines and flip-flop factories to create jobs:

China enters new era of ‘Dark Factories’ with no lights, no workers – TexSPACE Today

I visited China about 10 years ago and the level of infrastructure is quite striking.

I think there’s an assumption by some that by pointing out China’s successes someone is necessarily supporting them. This is asinine of course.

Are they authoritarian imperialists? 100%. I visited Tibet. But they are still more liked internationally than the US in polls of every country, so there you are. It is what it is. This is new for 2025 btw, can’t imagine why.

It also must be said China’s use of a combination of modern capitalism and central planned economy has really led to a striking level of economic development in a short period of time. It’s certainly worthy of study.

Obviously democratic governments always have the issue of the election cycles, which ends up with short term thinking or even deliberate sabotage by opposing administrations.

I don’t fancy the alternative, however impressive their phone reception.

Are they in trouble - possibly? I mean we all might be! There’s two stories here. China does seem to have invested heavily in the technology of the future and are integral to the world tech economy for instance.

So really a lot of this US v China stuff is quite nonsensical when you consider how central China is to US tech for instance.

OTOH the US seems no longer interested in international trade and has this strange narrative about returning the manufacturing jobs that even China doesn’t want to a populace who’d rather be, well, twitch steamers. Or at least not low wage labour.

And generating a trade surplus for … reasons? Sure make iPhones in the US LOL.

Anyway I notice the local Tesla dealership has been replaced with a Byd one. Sign of the times. Cheaper cars if you cut out the American middleman.

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[Spook410]

China has their own sets of problems. Debt is a big one. And planned economies are great until they're not.

As for the US, hoping that since the US won't be paying for Euro and UK defense so much anymore we can apply those resources to something useful to address our many challenges. Instead it will probably go to bitcoin mining in Kazakhstan.

Finally, historically, an ascendant global power often goes to war with the current global power at some point. So maybe we'll blow it all up anyway.