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Is this seller on to something? Jay Wolfe said weeks back that the archtop market is "dead." I'm glad I'm not a retailer, even though it sometimes feels like it. The comments are just as intriguing as the actual video.
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03-22-2024 05:55 AM
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There were some figures from Fender a few years back, 2018 I think it was. They put the total US guitar market at around 2 million units per year. Of these, 50% were beginners and, of those 90% lost interest within a year. Over a few years that's a lotta guitars sitting in attics, garages and closets, many of them with little or no wear on them.
It's hard to believe anyone is able to sell a used guitar considering that nearly everyone must have a sibling, cousin or neighbour with a beginner guitar lying under a bed somewhere in the house gathering dust.
That video from Gary's Guitars is in line with recent comments from Phil McKnight who seems to read the guitar business pretty well.
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With all this guys talk of moving guitars, I can't help but wonder how long those archtops have been hanging behind the counter.
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Economy is also not doing well so luxury/entertainment items are the first on the chopping block. People (especially young people) simply do not have the expendable income to buy instruments, even used. Maybe it's just me, but used gear seems to sell for an awful lot, sometimes close to new prices nowadays. Couple this with the comments above about how many instruments there are out there and this doesn't surprise me.
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I'm guessing the $20K+ ones have been there a while
Originally Posted by AllanAllen
Vintage Arch Top Guitars | Garys Classic Guitars & Vintage Guitars LLC
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The asking price is for guitars on Reverb is completely a joke. The problem with it is that some think it is the barometer of the market. I have a bunch of saved searches and many individuals have no clue and must not need the money. Archtop guitars are in the pits except for Gibsons L5 which have a really good showing. However, even on Reverb it is nuts. People asking 12-16$k for mid 70's Gibson L5ces. No one is going to pay them that price or near it. Making an offer sure but the seller probably will feel insulted.
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I had to laugh when he said there's a rumor the economy is doing bad. He must be one of those "if the stocks are good, everything is good" economists, detached from reality. Originally Posted by chris32895
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The good news is there are plenty good instruments available. Hopefully this means the days of Hoarding are coming to an end and the music itself is coming back into fashion!
Remember most of our hero’s whether Jazz or Rock, didn’t really collect instruments. They used what they had once they found a good one. Most of the multiples came after either they were stolen or given one.
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In real estate it is all about location. With guitars it is all about rarity and well located real estate is rare, so it is the same thing. If you have a rare, desirable guitar, it will have a market. A Chinese made strat copy may become hard to sell at any price.
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I like the '37 L5. Originally Posted by Banksia
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The new guitars are very similar to the old ones. Gibson and Fender have all the price points covered. A new guitar comes with a warranty (and case candy!). The secondhand market is riddled with scams.
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While I can only watch from afar, it seems the collector market and the player market are two different things. There are a few buyers that are in between. Enough money to buy what they want and maybe the financial wherewithal for something really cool. But it has to serve a purpose. I don't see the well-made-archtop market as being flooded like inexpensive solid and semi models. I do see some unrealistic pricing for archtops given the limited pool of buyers.
And if someone knows the state of the economy, they should let the various reserves around the world know so they can set monetary policy appropriately. We are currently in very confusing times with many positives for production while many unmitigated risks loom.
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The part about two different guitar markets is spot on. The high end market is not what he’s talking about as apocalyptic at least at the current time. The mainstream market simply has become flooded with guitars. That includes most American made guitars. They are still selling in good numbers, but there are just so many. Originally Posted by Spook410
The vintage, collector, and specialty market (all of which encompass much of the archtop market to varying degrees) has so far remained strong.
The US economy has been strong. The problem for so many though is that even though unemployment is low, wages are low compared to productivity.
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That’s a different Gary’s Guitars. The one in the videos is this one. Originally Posted by Banksia
https://garysguitars.biz/
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Agree with the "2 markets" idea as well. A lot of gear prices spiked during covid and some came back down. The high end collectible items' prices have stayed high. These are rare and people still want to have them.
It's strange to say "the economy is strong" when "The Economy" is experienced to differently by different people. During the pandemic, when gdp was projected to decline globally and stock prices tank, a lot of people got an extended vacation and money that exceeded their prior wages. I'm sure that was experienced differently by different people. And now, as a consequence of these policy decisions, the price of everything is massively higher than before. Wages have not increased proportionally to gdp growth. However, consumer spending has stabilized at record rates. On paper, then, consumers seem happy if they're spending on frivolous things and driving up the price of commercial giants' equity, which has propped up the wealth of certain classes of people. But the cost of homeownership has skyrocketed. Where I live, the minimum price of a home is $1 Million. Even in other parts of the country, house prices have doubled in the past 5 years.
Just as the economy is experienced differently by different people, the gear market is similarly bifurcated among consumers. The supply shortages on lower end gear are subsiding, and online reselling of the glut of used gear should, in the long term, lead to price competition (assuming there are scalable alternatives to the rent seeking Reverb imperium). The supply shortages on vintage gear are permanent. There will never be another Loar, D'Angelico, or D'Aquisto made. Ever. Only a reduction in demand would cause the value of them to go down, and I don't think it will happen; or at least not in this generation since the class of people wealthy enough to own them are also experiencing these recent economic fluctuations mostly positively in the long run.
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The Financial Times global inflation and interest rates tracker shows inflation is everywhere. Blaming your government for defending the economy or your fellow citizens for buying stuff is unfair. The pandemic changed everything, worldwide. The war in Ukraine and climate change make matters worse still. The next big problem will be insurance.
The glut of secondhand gear will not end unless demand increases and supply decreases; that won't happen while owners are selling gear to buy groceries.
The number of vintage guitars will not increase but the number on the market will. Collectors are human: they live and then they die. When the inevitable happens, their collections go on the market, in most cases. Since most collectors are getting on, and younger people do not collect things (no money, no space), more vintage guitars will enter the market; prices will fall. Collectors will also sell guitars if they must, just like ordinary owners.
The guitar market could be seen as divided into those instruments bought to play and those bought to keep, but the latter are also part of a larger market of collectibles. The demand for vintage guitars is affected by demand for other collectibles, particularly those that seem to promise returns. The fine art auction houses have recently discovered handbags. As the market finds new products, older collectibles may become less desirable. Do not count on your collection for your retirement fund.
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I don’t know where this idea that young people don’t collect things comes from. Boy do they ever! Originally Posted by Litterick
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Originally Posted by ThatRhythmMan
Fewer millennials own homes than their parents at the same age, and they have more debt, according to Bloomberg. What are they collecting? Small things, perhaps, but not anything that takes up space, or which costs much money Here are two articles about the phenomenon, concerned with furniture and china.
Washington Post
Many millennials raised in the collect-’em-all culture (think McDonald’s Happy Meal toys and Beanie Babies) now prefer to live simpler lives with less stuff in smaller downtown spaces, far from the suburban homes with fussy window treatments and formal dining rooms that they grew up in.
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Stephanie Kenyon, 60, the owner of Sloans & Kenyon Auctioneers and Appraisers in Chevy Chase, says the market is flooded with boomer rejects. "Hardly a day goes by that we don't get calls from people who want to sell a big dining room set or bedroom suite because nobody in the family wants it. Millennials don't want brown furniture, rocking chairs or silver-plated tea sets. Millennials don't polish silver." The formal furniture is often sold at bargain prices, or if it's not in good shape, it might go straight to the dump.
"Baby boomers were collectors," says Elizabeth Wainstein, 50, owner and president of Potomack Company Auctioneers in Alexandria, where lots of unwanted family treasures end up being sold. "They collected German porcelains or American pottery. It was a passion, and they spent their time on the thrill of the hunt." She says younger people aren't really that interested in filling shelves.
CBC
While Paul plans to eventually take some of that collection, his mom has a theory as to why many young people aren't keen to do the same — and it boils down to time, space and priorities.
"I've always said that things changed because of the cost of housing," she said. "That's where the time comes in. It's two income families and you've got child care and commuting."
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Originally Posted by deacon Mark
The prices are not real, are they? I think an offer is expected. Most prices are heavily discounted (20% to 40%) after a few weeks. I have a Reverb feed which shows me this process in real time. The discount prompts a sale on an item that has lingered for a while at an unreasonable price. Guitars and amps that are not discounted can hang around for a long time — a Hiwatt amp in Rome was on Reverb for four years. Most vendors have their items on sale in other places, or seem happy to wait; the Reverb listing is opportunistic.
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Being patient matters. I don’t sell often but when I do then I take my time. If it takes six months or more, then so be it. Profit isn’t on my radar but recovering what I put into it is. Originally Posted by Litterick
First come the bounty hunters who want to resell it. “Hey man, tell you what, I’ll take it off of you for 1/3rd of what you ask. You’ll never sell it. I’m doing you a favor here.”
Then come people who are genuinely interested but don’t have the money. “Hey man, I’ve been looking for that particular guitar for a long time now and really want it. But, y’know, life. Can you come down to 2/3rds of what you ask? You’d make me really happy.”
Then, sometimes much much later, someone shows up and there’s an honest, realistic discussion about price, a sale and everyone’s happy.
In 2022 I found a PRS NF3 in a shop. New. Been there since 2011. Store owner never changed the price. Not up, not down. Not a penny. He sold it to me for its original 2011 retail price. Now that’s patience.
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I like this idea and it makes me wonder about what will happen to something like this listing, or any number of similar, that are well beyond one year. Price point still comes off as obscene. How many "watchers" does it take to actually buy the guitar? Originally Posted by Oscar67
2016 Gibson Tal Farlow “Crimson” Custom | Reverb
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Well, what I think I’m seeing is: 1) a recent Gibson Custom archtop; 2) a model I’ve personally never seen in any shop anywhere. What would it have cost nee, 8 or 9 grand…? I’m assuming the seller wants to recuperate as much of his money as possible and I’m assuming that the seller assumes that it’s value will increase over time. Not unreasonable on both counts. Kudos to him for sticking it out. For me, personally, actually selling a guitar isn’t mandatory. When faced with a big loss I’d either keep it or make someone I like really really happy with it. Originally Posted by tomvwash
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Gary's is actually a store with inventory, similar (maybe) to the video above. Retail needs to move instruments to generate revenue; this is not a home collector. I purchased a mint condition 2016? Tal Farlow on this site a year ago, for less than half this asking price. This Reverb listing is priced too high. Originally Posted by Oscar67
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I think you hit the nail on the head right there. If you can get something somewhere else for less, then it's overpriced. If not, then it's not. Still, he can ask for it whatever he wants. Nobody has to oblige him nor does he have to oblige anyone. When selling a guitar recently some guy got irritated when I didn't accept his offer. He said I was asking too much. Well, then get it somewhere else for less. In the end I sold the guitar for the price I had in mind. Everyone happy. Originally Posted by tomvwash
PS if you scored a Gibson Custom Tal Farlow for less than 5k$ then I'd say you did OK :-)
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So, he wanted your guitar but he said you were asking too much... Originally Posted by Oscar67
Your guitar and he determined what you should be getting for it? My immediate response would be to double my price just for him.
Gary Dick has been in this business a long time. With Gary Dick, you can be sure that the guitar you buy from him will be flawless, no ifs and buts. There are collectors who would pay his premium for a worryfree purchase. Gary has his own clientele. He has earnt his reputation.
In 2014, Dave's Guitars had a used excellent plus 2012 Tal Farlow Viceroy Brown asking for $2750. If we accept that used Gibson archtop prices have doubled in a decade that makes it worth about $5500 today.
Guitars are emotional purchases. If you really have to have it either pony up or wait it out.
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