Used Guitar Apocalypse?

[Oscar67]

The most expensive, most marketed, most exploited product out there is FOMO. The fear of missing out. If I let this guitar slip, will I ever find another one? If I don't accept this guy's offer, will there be another offer from another guy? I love guitars as much as anyone (perhaps even more) but I've become immune to FOMO. There will always be another chance to buy or sell.

[Jabberwocky]

Moral of the story: Know what you have and don't let another guy beat you down on the price.

A few years ago, there was this fella looking for a Collings AT-16. A few of us scoured the web to find one for him. We located a few but he always said that they were much too expensive. Someone eventually found one at Cotten Music that was about $10 000 and pointed him to it. He bought it. 6 months later, he put it up for sale asking for $25 000, I think it was. He said that it was rare and deserved the asking price. Now he was singing a different tune. We told him that it was not the prevailing market price and that a few of us helped him out and that he should return the favour and pass it on at about the same price that he bought it since it was not something that suited him. It took awhile but eventually Kim of Cotten Music bought it back from him, if I recall.

Some people want to pay a certain price in order to resell at a much higher price. They trust that either sellers don't know what they are selling or buyers don't know what they are buying.

[bluejaybill]

So, he wanted your guitar but he said you were asking too much... Your guitar and he determined what you should be getting for it? My immediate response would be to double my price just for him.

Gary Dick has been in this business a long time. With Gary Dick, you can be sure that the guitar you buy from him will be flawless, no ifs and buts. There are collectors who would pay his premium for a worryfree purchase. Gary has his own clientele. He has earnt his reputation.

In 2014, Dave's Guitars had a used excellent plus 2012 Tal Farlow Viceroy Brown asking for $2750. If we accept that used Gibson archtop prices have doubled in a decade that makes it worth about $5500 today.

Guitars are emotional purchases. If you really have to have it either pony up or wait it out.

I think it was determined that this Gary is not that Gary earlier in the thread.

The Gary you mention has always been pretty high priced, and I have seen his inventory sit for years- sometimes many years. I figured that he viewed it as his collection and only sold for top dollar sporadically. This is a common method for vintage dealers, Norm I believe often does something similar.

[Spook410]

On waiting it out..

How old are you and how many more years are you going to be actively playing? If you are old enough, missing a couple of years while waiting for the perfect instrument to come up for sale at a good price seems less a good idea.

Where do you see the archtop market going? Maybe the craftsmen skills we've relied on in the the past for great (or even good) instruments will be replicated somehow. Given the low demand for archtops, seems unlikely. IMHO, there will always be fewer carved archtops to choose from.

Archtops, especially nice ones, use scarce resources. If you want beautiful maple, Honduran mahogany, and ebony.. waiting might not be a good idea.

[Dennis D]

I think it was determined that this Gary is not that Gary earlier in the thread.

The Gary you mention has always been pretty high priced, and I have seen his inventory sit for years- sometimes many years. I figured that he viewed it as his collection and only sold for top dollar sporadically. This is a common method for vintage dealers, Norm I believe often does something similar.

I remember seeing an actual vid somewhere of a customer re-visiting Norm's and this time looking at a high-buck archtop, after having previously purchased a' lesser ' ticket guitar, from Norm, meaning typical Norm's overpriced stuff. So after both the buyer and Norm finish oohing and aahing over this new high ticket guitar, the buyer asks if he could trade that other one back in.
So Norm just smiles, doesn't even flinch, and says something like " Well, no we don't really deal much in those models to be fair."......

Sure you don't, Norman, sure you don't..... : )

[Oscar67]

On waiting it out... … Where do you see the archtop market going? Maybe the craftsmen skills we've relied on in the the past for great (or even good) instruments will be replicated somehow. Given the low demand for archtops, seems unlikely. IMHO, there will always be fewer carved archtops to choose from. … Archtops, especially nice ones, use scarce resources. If you want beautiful maple, Honduran mahogany, and ebony... waiting might not be a good idea.

I’m not worried about supply. There seem to be more independent builders than ever. If I wanted to order an archtop from a luthier, my first hurdle would be to determine from whom. So much choice… Then there are brands like Collings, Benedetto, etc who are not a one-man operation but do offer top quality. Then the larger companies which make fine jazz guitars like Ibanez etc. And that’s just for new stuff. If archtop demand will go down because the people who buy them pass away, then their guitars will hit the used guitar market place.

[Spook410]

There will be plenty of laminates from Ibanez and others if there is a demand for them so that's easy enough. Hand carved archtops are another matter. As for having a great supply to choose from, I'm not seeing anywhere near the choices today we had 10 years ago. Makes me wonder what we'll see a few years from now. When I bought my L5's I guessed prices weren't going to be dropping any time soon. And they haven't so I'm glad I didn't wait.

[Oscar67]

I remember seeing an actual vid somewhere of a customer re-visiting Norm's and this time looking at a high-buck archtop, after having previously purchased a' lesser ' ticket guitar, meaning typical Norm's overpriced stuff. So after both the buyer and Norm finish oohing and aahing over this new high ticket guitar, the buyer asks if he could trade that other one back in. So Norm just smiles, doesn't even flinch, and says something like " Well, no we don't really deal much in those models to be fair."...... Sure you don't, Norman, sure you don't..... : )

I’ve never been to Norm’s and don’t think I ever will. Seen from a distance, seems like his whole life he’s been selling guitars that people want at prices they’re _just_ willing to pay. He’s one of those rare guys who can walk the tightrope for decades without falling off. That’s not easy. You need to be a business person through and through for that and Norm seems like a business man first and foremost. If Norm’s isn’t your kind of shop, there’s always GC or CME or (for vintage stuff here in Europe) TFOA in Holland or Vintage & Rare in the UK. I know the people who run TFOA well and they, too, are business people first and foremost and their rules of engagement are etched in stone. Don’t get me wrong, they’re wonderful people and they love guitars, but it’s a business. They employ quite a few people and they run a tight ship. I’ve been to Vintage & Rare in the UK several times and it’s just the same. In places like Norm’s, TFOA or V&R, if you walk out the door with a guitar thinking you paid one penny less than what they wanted to get for it, then think again.

You mention buying a guitar somewhere and then trading it in again. I think you touched on a topic that shows the strict business rules I mentioned. Sometimes they have to trade in a guitar that they rather wouldn’t, for example if someone passes away, the family wants to sell the guitars as a package deal and there are some gems and some duds (from a commercial point of view, not quality). If you buy the dud and then want to trade it in again later, they might not take it back (or at a very low price). I’ve had that happen to me and in such cases I sold the guitar myself and even got more for it.

[Alter]

The one part of guitar market that i think is very healthy price wise right now for the buyer is the classical guitar market. Probably due to low demand, but you can find great bargains, and get amazing guitars for very reasonable prices. For archtops, the era of buying has passed, at least for most musicians. Most new players i see are using cheap brands like D Angelico, Ibanez etc, since a guitar should be a tool to play music and not a luxury item.

[Irishmuso]

The most expensive, most marketed, most exploited product out there is FOMO. The fear of missing out. If I let this guitar slip, will I ever find another one?

Well...yes! I missed out on a guitar for £799. I have just bid £1750 on an admittedly better example. (I justify it by averaging out the good bargains I have obtained and I'm still ahead....I think )