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Everything on my reverb watch list keeps going down. Has anyone else noticed this?
I'm watching a D'Aquisto, just went from 60K to 45K. That's down 25%!!!
I'm also watching a Longbeard Lil Jake tube amp, went from 1500 to 1000.
And a 1956 Super 400 just went from 18K to 15K. Haven't seen one of those at 15K in a long while.
This guy I watch on YouTube, Philip McKnight says gear prices are going down because the companies overproduced new guitars due to the spike in sales during the pandemic. But now it's used and vintage stuff too. Seems like a good buyers market.
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07-24-2024 02:23 AM
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That is a normal swing back action after the insanely high levels we saw in the past couple of years.
I personally don't buy for investment or for building up a collection so my view and my motivation might differ from many others...
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It’s easy to argue that the D’Aquisto was way overpriced to begin with. Larry Wexer has a much nicer Excel right now priced at $46k.
Who knows though. While it’s anecdotal, I’ve seen a significantly busier summer than I have typically.
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Maybe some solidbody guitars have come down a bit but archtops seem to me to be the same or higher in some cases.Of course what these guitars actually sell for no one but the seller knows.
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The problem with all this is we use Reverb as a price barometer and that is a complete mistake. Use dealers who are well known and in the business of selling guitars for a living mostly full time. So, looking at Larry Wexer and George Gruhn as a basic starting point. Many complain that George is high but compared to the ridicules Reverb prices George is cheap. If someone has not sold a guitar in a year then to me it is overpriced. I get it that archtops don't move as fast but at some point there is no market.
Google Gibson L5's on reverb and look at the prices. You see absolutely out of the park prices for normal L5's that are less than 40 years old. George Gruhn would never list a routine Norlin 1975 Gibson L5 for $12,500 that i see and some even higher. Look at the prices Larry has listed and forget the D'aquisto's they are bit off track in marker because of what they are.. Gryphon in Bay area another place to look. Recently they had a Wes Blond L5 priced at $9500 and it sold. I don't know the real price but the listed price is less than anything on Reverb and for a blond one in near mint to boot! Even Archtop.com does not list prices like some do on reverb. Just look at this guitar here and if you pay and buy this L5 for the money...........well that is your business but I think it is well overpriced by thousands of $$$
Gibson L-5 Signature 2001 - very special ordered 1 owner 16" L-5CES in a stunning Ice Tea'burst ! | Reverb
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Home prices have also started to slump downward but a lot of people are still clinging to that pandemic hail mary pricing hoping they can still get beyond top dollar.
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Yes I agree people have to get real with their prices.
But they are diving faster than usual right now I've noticed.
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What goes up often comes down. Factor the ever shrinking dollar in and even if prices seem, say 2 percent higher than last year but there has been 4 percent inflation, that means you actually have prices that have actually fallen a bit.
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I bought a 2005 ES-175D last winter for a very reasonable (pre-pandemic) price, about 50-60% of the asking prive for very similar ones on Reverb. It is not a good benchmark for real world prices. It has always fascinated me that on eBay and sites like reverb.com, people will pay more than they would pay at retail. I guess "shopping victoriously" must have its own rewards to make up for costing more.
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That L5 signature is for sale by The Guitar Broker in Fort Lauderdale. The price on his website is exactly $2000 less than he listed it for on Reverb. I have noticed this trend recently, where dealers post instruments on their website for one price and on Reverb for a higher price, to offset the Reverb fees. I can’t blame them for using this approach. They get the extra visability and free advertising that Reverb can offer without the risk losing money if the guitar actually sells on Reverb. If you look at many Reverb listings, you can easily recognize which ones are dealers, and you can often find the same guitar listed on their websites for less. I’m not sure what the market price of an L5 signature should be, but an asking price of $10.5K doesn’t seem unreasonable to me.
Originally Posted by deacon Mark
Keith
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Another possible contributing factor is the time of year. Many are away on summer vacation.
Doug
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Bloomberg: Companies are hiring fewer workers. Consumers are spending less. The housing market is all but paralyzed by the highest interest rates in decades. Manufacturing is struggling, with the exception of sectors benefiting from government incentives, such as semiconductors and electric vehicles. And even as inflation slows, business and households continue to complain of a sting from high prices.
It's the economy.
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Even the retired, good but rather confidential classical builder I visited the other day was aware that "guitars don't sell these days", to the point that the largest music store in a nearby bigger town is selling off the entire inventory before moving to smaller digs.
It probably doesn't bode well for future availability of affordable (pardon, cheap) archtops and up-and-coming builders...
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If you ever buy from places in Japan, $1 is now 152 Yen, and 1 Euro is 165 Yen. This is fantastic for overseas buyers as well.
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Watchlists consist of items that have been on Reverb for a while. It's a given that prices in a watchlist will drop because nearly all Reverb items (assuming we're talking about used gear) are initially priced well above what people will pay and come down over time. That behavior in and of itself is not an indicator of price trends. The best indicator for that is Reverb's price guides (which use actual selling prices), followed by sold listings discounted by an educated guess (because sold listings are the asking price at time of sale, not the accepted offer).
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I see that, even if the details are a bit different. Originally Posted by JazzIsGood
I buy in the "interesting but affordable" market. The dippage tends to start earlier there than over at the rack of Monteleones.
The last two archtops I've bought -- a 20yo instrument from an 'almost a name' luthier, and a lower-condition mid-level 1960s Gibson -- were both for pre-pandemic prices.
They're both nice, too. I'm temporarily happy.
Let's add a further wrinkle: The Reverb sold price accurately shows what the buyer paid. But Reverb charges the seller, so the seller agreed to take less than the sale price. Originally Posted by John A.
A distinction with a difference when you're selling!
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Yeah ... Originally Posted by Cunamara
I suspect that the competitive nature of online markets like eBay and Reverb lends to a bidding frenzy that leads to people spending more than they would in a normal retail environment.
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Guitar sales have been up for the last 5 years higher than ever before.As far as a brick and mortar store having to go to smaller digs that's the reality of trying to compete with online sellers not that people are not buying guitars. Originally Posted by RJVB
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Car dealers are also clinging to pandemic pricing for cars built years before the pandemic!!! It’s nuts! Originally Posted by DawgBone
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Presswire: 'The global guitar market size is estimated to grow by USD 1.84 billion from 2024-2028, according to Technavio. The market is estimated to grow at a CAGR of over 7.02% during the forecast period. Growing popularity of music-related leisure activities is driving market growth, with a trend towards growing online retailing. However, long replacement cycle of guitars poses a challenge.'
Eric Alper: 'The global electric guitar market size is estimated to grow by USD 1.45 billion from 2024-2028, according to Technavio. The market is estimated to grow at a CAGR of 10.43% during the forecast period.'
At first sight, it seems everybody is buying new guitars, which could be bad news for the used market.
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An important thing to keep in mind is that there isn’t really ONE guitar market. The mainstream guitar market often behaves very differently than the high end, vintage, or collectors’ markets, markets which may or may not overlap.
Articles like those linked above are focused on the mainstream market of factory built, predominantly sold by large retailers.
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At archtop.com I've been seeing several 'New Price! ' listings. And at RetroFret I see 'Price Reduced! ' from time to time. I'm mostly looking at archtops, from vintage Epi and D'Angelico to more modern luthiers.
I've noticed it more over the last few months. Maybe it's a seasonal thing, or maybe the slide has begun.
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Most of these seller's prices are already high to begin with,their reduced price is just coming down to what other's are selling them for.Go look at Guitarsnjazz sale prices for example. Originally Posted by ccroft
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Sale prices at Guitarsnjazz also indicate prices might be coming down. They list a price, it doesn't budge so they lower the price. There's several of them there too.
One EG is Sadowsky J.H. marked down from $5.5K to$4.95. Joe V has one that just went on hold. It was listed at under $5K earlier this week. Of course, we can't know if Joe's price was high compared to GnJ's since we can't compare the instruments side by side.
I was just saying that archtop prices seem to me to be coming down a bit, outside of Reverb. Sellers aren't moving them at the prices they used to move them at, and in some cases they're lowering the ask.
I think I'm seeing more of this than I used to and wondering if anyone else feels the same.
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Prices seem to be falling, not just in the market for archtops, but secondhand guitars generally; and it is not confined to the USA: similar conversations are taking place on other guitar forums. Originally Posted by ccroft
An old archtop is competing for the prospective buyer's attention with new Eastmans and Godins.
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