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  1. #101
    Quote Originally Posted by Vladan
    The flaw in solution is...
    It is not even interesting.

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    You missed the intermission? We discussed the harmonic series and listened to Indian Classical music!

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    The Jazz Guitar Chord Dictionary
     
  3. #102

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    I wish you had just asked us how to fit 10 pounds of shit in a 5 pound bag.....

  4. #103

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    Paul -

    Can I talk to you straight and gently? This is a friendly message!

    If you want to present a puzzle like this you have to fully understand it yourself. And also understand it from the point of view of the solver.

    As originally presented, it's not possible to guess the answer without looking in the bag. As I said, there's nothing to work with, there's not enough information.

    This puzzle, as originally stated, can't be found anywhere on the internet. This is hardly surprising because, as presented, it's not a real puzzle. All - and I mean all - of these kinds of puzzles depend on having at least three elements.

    But they are all probability puzzles and the answers to them are not expected to be exact, only a likelihood answer.

    When you ask us to deduce what colour the two marbles are it implies the answer must be precise. You said:

    How do you figure out the colors of the marbles?
    the answer is not a probability
    But you did say the answer involved probability calculations... but it didn't need a probability calculation. It's a matter of simple deduction that there would be either BB, WW, or BW in the bag.

    So I'm afraid the problem wasn't the puzzle, it was the presentation. People were asking the right questions but were given the wrong answers.

    Where did you get this puzzle from? Or did you set out to disguise a three-element puzzle as two-element and ask for a precise solution rather than a probability?

    Only you know that :-)

  5. #104

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    Sounds like someone's been reading the Munich Riddle Manifesto...

  6. #105

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    Well, it was a bit of a wind-up, let's be honest.

  7. #106

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    Quote Originally Posted by grahambop
    I am pretty useless at probabilities, but is there possibly a flaw as follows:

    The overall probability after adding a 3rd black marble is 2/3. But this relates to the combined probability across 3 possible scenarios, i.e.
    BBB
    BBW
    BWW

    But when you work back from your end result of 2/3, you have assumed it only relates to the 2/3 result which attached to one of those 3 scenarios, i.e. BBW, from there you can get to the BW answer.

    But it would seem the overall 2/3 result includes the BBB and BWW scenarios as well?
    It appears I was the first to identify your flaw (although you haven’t responded to my post), what prize do I win?

  8. #107

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    Actually it looks like I solved it in post 4. The only solution is to open the bag.

  9. #108

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    Of course you did. Only sensible solution given the original proposition.

    But:

    No, the point is to figure it out without looking.
    I don't think Paul set out to deceive, he just didn't know what he was doing, which is not a good starting point for a puzzle-setter. But I'd like to know where he got the puzzle from initially.

    This stuff's a doddle compared to jazz confusion

  10. #109

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    I don't care about black or white marbles
    I want a blue one.

  11. #110

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    Quote Originally Posted by ragman1
    Of course you did. Only sensible solution given the original proposition.

    But:



    I don't think Paul set out to deceive, he just didn't know what he was doing, which is not a good starting point for a puzzle-setter. But I'd like to know where he got the puzzle from initially.

    This stuff's a doddle compared to jazz confusion
    I suspect he devised it, but by adding the whole bit about starting with 2 marbles, adding one, then taking it away again, you just complicate the problem unnecessarily (because actually it was just about proving that a bag with 3 marbles in 3 possible configurations can be proved to have only one configuration). All that extra stuff just obscures where the error is. Anyway it was quite interesting.

    Always helps to apply Occam’s Razor...

  12. #111

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    Quote Originally Posted by grahambop
    (because actually it was just about proving that a bag with 3 marbles in 3 possible configurations can be proved to have only one configuration).
    Which is, in itself, a misunderstanding, but never mind.

    O_R applied to jazz might not be a bad idea either. Frequently and often :-)