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  1. #601

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    Quote Originally Posted by Spook410
    Guns.. such an emotional topic. And so many folks are easy to manipulate. Since gun ownership is low for the Dem base and high for the Republican base, these flames will be stoked as much as possible while the politicians seek to get their base to give them power and money.

    Actual things that kill people are harder to politicize and require actual thought. From CDC 2011 but until now hasn't changed much:

    1.Diseases of heart (heartdisease)
    2.
    Malignant neoplasms (cancer)
    3.
    Chronic lower respiratory diseases
    4.
    Cerebro vascular diseases(stroke)
    5.
    Accidents(unintentional injuries)
    6.
    Alzheimer’s disease
    7.Diabetes mellitus(diabetes)
    8.
    Influenza and pneumonia
    9.
    Nephritis,nephrotic syndrome and nephrosis (kidneydisease)
    10.
    Intentional self-harm(suicide)
    11.
    Septicemia
    12.Chronic liver disease and cirrhosis
    13.
    Essential hypertension and hypertensive renal disease (hypertension)
    14.
    Parkinson’s disease
    15.Pneumonitisdueto solids and liquids
    you don't die from parkinson's disease.

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    The Jazz Guitar Chord Dictionary
     
  3. #602

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    Uk ..3 more weeks lockdown from today...not that im suffering from it....lockdown most of the time..lol

  4. #603

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    sgonsell
    feeling for your situation , and just saw it recently...super good luck

    i have two anxieties
    one, getting the disease
    two, the way its being handled

  5. #604

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    Quote Originally Posted by djg
    you don't die from parkinson's disease.
    The list is cut and paste from CDC. Since you must argue with someone, I suggest you go argue with them on what represents a root cause.

  6. #605

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    Quote Originally Posted by djg
    you don't die from parkinson's disease.
    Well, we have the CDC, and we have your opinion.

    Here's Wikipedia: "In 2015, PD [Parkinson's Disease] affected 6.2 million people and resulted in about 117,400 deaths globally.

  7. #606

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ukena
    Well, we have the CDC, and we have your opinion.

    Here's Wikipedia: "In 2015, PD [Parkinson's Disease] affected 6.2 million people and resulted in about 117,400 deaths globally.
    my father suffered from parkinson's for 25 years. you do not die from a deficit of dopamine.

    Do People Die From Parkinson's? | ParkinsonsDisease.net

    In general, the diseases that kill other people in the general population, like cancer and heart disease, are also the diseases that kill most people with PD as well. A lot of people don’t realize this, and to further confound the issue, on the death certificates of those with PD, often times it will be written that the cause of death is listed as “Parkinson’s Disease.” Inaccuracies in death certificates is a known problem, stemming from lack of training and guidance.4 While PD may be a contributing peripheral factor in a person’s death, it may then be written as cause of death, thus causing confusion on the part of family members and contributing to inaccurate health statistics. PD is not the direct cause of death for these patients, but rather complications stemming from PD may be the true cause.

  8. #607

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    66% of Americans don't see it this way;


  9. #608

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    Corona Virus impact on jazz?-captain-moore-jpg

  10. #609

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    Quote Originally Posted by Stevebol
    66% of Americans don't see it this way;


  11. #610

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    WW2 SPITFIRE PLANE may be flown over the World War Two hero's home in Bedfordshire to celebrate his achievement...

  12. #611

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    Number of deaths in NYC went down in the last couple days.

  13. #612

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    That's good news, but it also seems like the numbers have been lower during the weekends.

  14. #613

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    djg, you are making me afraid, very afraid......

    i must say, i am very happy to see that jacksonville has opened up its beach with social distance rules , the all time greatest surfer kelly slater is raising his voice about the ridiculousness of not letting people go to the beach with social distance, and one beach in my state opened up.

    now if we find out that the infection rate of the corona virus gets caught by these social distance beach goers, not teenagers celibrating spring break , ill rethink my position on that.

    im ordering you to take a social distance walk !! and then practice some up bop

  15. #614

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    Quote Originally Posted by bonsritmos
    djg, you are making me afraid, very afraid......

    i must say, i am very happy to see that jacksonville has opened up its beach with social distance rules , the all time greatest surfer kelly slater is raising his voice about the ridiculousness of not letting people go to the beach with social distance, and one beach in my state opened up.

    now if we find out that the infection rate of the corona virus gets caught by these social distance beach goers, not teenagers celibrating spring break , ill rethink my position on that.

    im ordering you to take a social distance walk !! and then practice some up bop
    #FloridaMorons trending very strong on Twitter. Wonder why?

  16. #615

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    The CDC is estimating between 24k and 62k flu-related deaths for the 2019-2020 season. They (the CDC) include the caveat that the numbers may be skewed high due to increased testing due to COVID-19. Pretty scary, right?

    Except that the 2017-2018 season peaked with about 1,600 deaths per week in January of that year with a season estimate of 80k deaths (again, CDC numbers). The season was also unique because it crossed the traditional age barriers typically seen with influenza and took out a higher percentage of children and young adults than any previous season. Do you remember the big panic around that 2017-2018 season, how it was a daily topic on the news and how it impacted our lives? No? Neither do I.

    How about some really scary news. West Texas Intermediate is today trading at more than negative $30 per barrel. For the first time in history, producers are paying refiners to take crude off their hands. Of course, the refiners don’t want it because they can’t sell what they have. Marathon Oil closed two refineries so far, Gallup NM and Martinez CA. So not so much interest in buying excess crude.

    Think you can live without the energy infrastructure? Ready to play out that Mad Max dystopian fantasy? Better be . . .

  17. #616

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    Quote Originally Posted by Betz
    The CDC is estimating between 24k and 62k flu-related deaths for the 2019-2020 season. They (the CDC) include the caveat that the numbers may be skewed high due to increased testing due to COVID-19. Pretty scary, right?

    Except that the 2017-2018 season peaked with about 1,600 deaths per week in January of that year with a season estimate of 80k deaths (again, CDC numbers). The season was also unique because it crossed the traditional age barriers typically seen with influenza and took out a higher percentage of children and young adults than any previous season. Do you remember the big panic around that 2017-2018 season, how it was a daily topic on the news and how it impacted our lives? No? Neither do I.

    How about some really scary news. West Texas Intermediate is today trading at more than negative $30 per barrel. For the first time in history, producers are paying refiners to take crude off their hands. Of course, the refiners don’t want it because they can’t sell what they have. Marathon Oil closed two refineries so far, Gallup NM and Martinez CA. So not so much interest in buying excess crude.

    Think you can live without the energy infrastructure? Ready to play out that Mad Max dystopian fantasy? Better be . . .
    This is far worse than any flu I have seen in my life time. Identified case fatality rate seems to be going up to around 5% + in many countries and the crude mortality rate is estimated to be around 1% to 3% which is still 5 times higher than the flu and equates to a hell of a lot of dead people. I certainly never saw a flu season during which they create mass graves to relieve over-run morgues. The only reason why things are ok in Canada (where I sit) is the place is locked down as tight as a drum and have been for 5 weeks. Quebec is getting hit really hard because their March break was late and Quebecers are famous for going to the southern US for the break. They came back with the infections. I am already familiar with two deaths of friends that would never have died if they had "just a little flu..."...as Bolsinaro describes it. I have another acquaintance that is a suspected Covid death.

    The Alberta oil patch is now officially devastated and I suspect the government will nationalize chunks of it and pay pennies on the dollar for the purchase. They will do that to maintain supply and infrastructure and some jobs/expertise. They will probably sell it back within a year or two. Even the government doesn't want to stay invested in a dying industry. Funnily, Albertans hate any thought of Ottawa interfering with "their oil" but that is changing and even the Alberta government is playing nice with hated Ottawa. Truly amazing how fast things have changed. In early February the Alberta government tabled a budget that projected revenues from oil stabilizing at around $60 a barrel. Talk about la vie en rose...

  18. #617

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    Earlier today, the CDC issued a report stating that some 25% of all COVID-19 cases are asymptotic; no symptoms at all. Results from closed system testing (military) are indicating up to 70% asymptomatic. Health officials are now saying the virus usually causes mild or moderate flu-like symptoms with a substantial number having no symptoms at all.

    And if that is not enough, more concerns over the on-going testing procedures. Not only are there significant false positives, if the nasal swab is not performed correctly it may miss actual infections.

  19. #618

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    Quote Originally Posted by Roberoo
    The Alberta oil patch is now officially devastated and I suspect the government will nationalize chunks of it and pay pennies on the dollar for the purchase. They will do that to maintain supply and infrastructure and some jobs/expertise. They will probably sell it back within a year or two.
    So people in power will make billions off this ‘pandemic’? Good thing those same people don’t control the media or censure people who challenge them. Oh; I get it . . .

  20. #619

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    Quote Originally Posted by Betz
    Earlier today, the CDC issued a report stating that some 25% of all COVID-19 cases are asymptotic; no symptoms at all. Results from closed system testing (military) are indicating up to 70% asymptomatic. Health officials are now saying the virus usually causes mild or moderate flu-like symptoms with a substantial number having no symptoms at all.

    And if that is not enough, more concerns over the on-going testing procedures. Not only are there significant false positives, if the nasal swab is not performed correctly it may miss actual infections.
    There are so many estimates out there about asymptomatics it is really hard to judge what is happening. The UK recently made noises about the possibility of a lot of people already infected but with a low testing rate it is impossible to know. Austria just did a random sample of their population and found only a 1% infection rate that implies they are nowhere near "herd" immunity. I am in Ontario with about 14 million people and the estimates are they need to do 50k test a day to get a window on what is really happening and to navigate a way out to this situation. They are at about 8000 a day so that increase is not happening for a couple of months at least as they build capacity.

  21. #620

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    Quote Originally Posted by Betz
    So people in power will make billions off this ‘pandemic’? Good thing those same people don’t control the media or censure people who challenge them. Oh; I get it . . .
    Yes, the situation will be stabilized and I suspect the viable parts of the oil patch will be sold to wealthy investors and those companies that survived the pandemic. Someone is going to make a ton of money on this and, as we all know, many have lost a ton of money.

  22. #621

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    Quote Originally Posted by Betz
    The CDC is estimating between 24k and 62k flu-related deaths for the 2019-2020 season. They (the CDC) include the caveat that the numbers may be skewed high due to increased testing due to COVID-19. Pretty scary, right?

    Except that the 2017-2018 season peaked with about 1,600 deaths per week in January of that year with a season estimate of 80k deaths (again, CDC numbers). The season was also unique because it crossed the traditional age barriers typically seen with influenza and took out a higher percentage of children and young adults than any previous season. Do you remember the big panic around that 2017-2018 season, how it was a daily topic on the news and how it impacted our lives? No? Neither do I.

    How about some really scary news. West Texas Intermediate is today trading at more than negative $30 per barrel. For the first time in history, producers are paying refiners to take crude off their hands. Of course, the refiners don’t want it because they can’t sell what they have. Marathon Oil closed two refineries so far, Gallup NM and Martinez CA. So not so much interest in buying excess crude.

    Think you can live without the energy infrastructure? Ready to play out that Mad Max dystopian fantasy? Better be . . .
    thanks for the irrelevant lies and BS. the faster the oil industry dies, the better for the planet and its inhabitants. the rest of your nonsense isn't worth anything but a laugh.

  23. #622

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    Quote Originally Posted by Betz
    The CDC is estimating between 24k and 62k flu-related deaths for the 2019-2020 season. They (the CDC) include the caveat that the numbers may be skewed high due to increased testing due to COVID-19. Pretty scary, right?

    Except that the 2017-2018 season peaked with about 1,600 deaths per week in January of that year with a season estimate of 80k deaths (again, CDC numbers). The season was also unique because it crossed the traditional age barriers typically seen with influenza and took out a higher percentage of children and young adults than any previous season. Do you remember the big panic around that 2017-2018 season, how it was a daily topic on the news and how it impacted our lives? No? Neither do I...
    I don't understand the points of these statements if they are somehow comparing the current coronavirus pandemic to the common flu and concluding that the common flu is worse, and that the current COVID-19 mitigations are draconian for insufficient reasons. In the USA we haven gone from zero COVID-19 related deaths to over 40,000 in about 50 days. From what I can see 50 days is roughly half as long as typical peak flu seasons last. People talk about a flattened curve, but what really matters is the area underneath the curve. How high does the curve go before it descends and how long will it take to start descending? Can you clarify your points?
    Last edited by lammie200; 04-20-2020 at 06:29 PM.

  24. #623

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    Well, it is really kind of mental. My wife points out the derivatives market for oil is huge. That's going to be interesting as all of their models stop working.

  25. #624

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    Yeah, maths don't like formulas when the denominator is zero.

  26. #625

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    “Never let a good crisis go to waste.” Rahm Emmanuel

    My points are:
    1. Any death is a catastrophe to those it touches. But when you look at other years, then maybe, just maybe, this is not a bad as we have been led to believe.
    2. If the news media did not do things like using photos of the same physicians and patients as a clinic in New York as another network used as a clinic in Italy, it would be easier to believe they are telling us the truth and not reading from a script.
    3. We need a functional economy when this is all over.
    4. Whether or not Ronjazz has the ability to admit it, not a single thing I said was a lie. Not the CDC numbers, not the commodity numbers, not the refinery closings. He may be cheering for the oil industry to fail, but take a look at Venezuela if you want to see what happens when it does. Laugh all you want, but will you really be happier with your amp as doorstop as there is no longer a reliable electric utility and deciding if you want to eat this week or buy a new set of guitar strings? Easy to be righteous sitting at a computer in a comfortable heated home on a wireless global network with no idea how any of it is made possible.
    Last edited by Betz; 04-20-2020 at 06:59 PM. Reason: Misspelling

  27. #626

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    Quote Originally Posted by ronjazz
    thanks for the irrelevant lies and BS. the faster the oil industry dies, the better for the planet and its inhabitants. the rest of your nonsense isn't worth anything but a laugh.
    I would guess that you are aware of the percentage of homes in the very populous NorthEast that are heated by oil. What do you suppose these millions do should the oil industry quickly die?

  28. #627

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    "FloridaMorons trending very strong on Twitter. Wonder why?"
    "
    thanks for the irrelevant lies and BS. the faster the oil industry dies, the better for the planet and its inhabitants. the rest of your nonsense isn't worth anything but a laugh."

    ron jazz, these kind of statements hurt your position greatly .when people start patronising , using expletives, i know you didnt curse, just pushing a kind of echo chamber agenda , it makes me want to seriously research deeper to find out the truth. because those atitudes, to dismiss and put down any kind of discusion , feels like something is actualy weak and is being propped up.

    it is very healthy to broach powerfully the subject " are we doing the right solution ?" , and i have major doubts that "we" are. there is so much misinformation, this thing is a political agenda from the get go . you cant mention the one country that has the best solution and is the opisite of what the big health organisation said to do , based on the originator of the whole problem , and by god ive seen on not just this forum but others , that you get into mentioning this country and asking why on a thread, and the thread gets taken down.

    this is insane, the country of origin , censored people from trying to tell the truth. we are doing that countries failed solution . what kind of an atmosphere is being parasiticly snuck in on the way we live.

    they just had a study that is saying many more people have this than they thought, way many more , which pushes the death rate down. ive seen the youtubes of doctors saying you put people on respirators and they just seem to get worse...doctors on the front line...they are questioning what is going on. they dont really know , they are finding out as we go , and in that climate of not knowing, we are executing what amounts to a marxist lockdown. its absolutly time to broach the discusion of other ways.

    who is a moran is those criticising going on the beach with social distance. i saw the reports and people are sure farther apart than any supermarket ive been to. people are so eager to repress the beach thing because they just cant stand to see some people tryng to have fun. please spare me the rationalisations of spring break etc,it would be easy to enact social distance norms on any beach. anyone who thinks social distance norms wont help on the huge out doors of the beach , i seriously disagree with you.

    no man, this is about trusting my gut, and ill tell you, if i get this disgusting virus, it absolutly wont be because of my social distance walks to the beach, . i was so happy to see two beautiful girls walking in bikinis today, i guarentee you , corona virus wont enter your skin on the beach, you could go naked. i think sand is a bad place for the
    virus.i aplaud jacksonville and the beach in the state where i live, wish it was my beach. when they tell you , you cant do things that absolutly wont get you infected by the corona virus, that is when the line has to be drawn.

    i dont really want to come in here countering people, but, i realise, i have to speak up. i do step back and try to research the truth, i especialy have had to do that where i live with the brain wash of the cold war. and i learned a lot about stepping back and reseaching for the truth. if i dont do it , too many dismissive mob rule agendas are going tell everyone to shut up and stay the f inside

    if i get this disgusting virus , it will be the places they forced me to go among huge crowds to get what i have to get to survive.

    and, gees, if only we can reach green , but, it wont be the "great leap forward green new deal", it will take some great entrepernership to bring great technology to get greener , at a price we can afford. until then, we need fossil fuels.there is nothing good about this soloution, even if its the right one, its not good and should be gotten away from as fast as the vacination can be made

  29. #628

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    Quote Originally Posted by Betz
    “Never let a good crisis go to waste.” Rahm Emmanuel

    My points are:
    1. Any death is a catastrophe to those it touches. But when you look at other years, then maybe, just maybe, this is not a bad as we have been led to believe.
    2. If the news media did not do things like using photos of the same physicians and patients as a clinic in New York as another network used as a clinic in Italy, it would be easier to believe they are telling us the truth and not reading from a script.
    3. We need a functional economy when this is all over.
    4. Whether or not Ronjazz has the ability to admit it, not a single thing I said was a lie. Not the CDC numbers, not the commodity numbers, not the refinery closings. He may be cheering for the oil industry to fail, but take a look at Venezuela if you want to see what happens when it does. Laugh all you want, but will you really be happier with your amp as doorstop as there is no longer a reliable electric utility and deciding if you want to eat this week or buy a new set of guitar strings? Easy to be righteous sitting at a computer in a comfortable heated home on a wireless global network with no idea how any of it is made possible.
    Deaths have been somewhat contained (even with 15k dead in New York, 21K in Spain, and 24K in Italy within 6 weeks etc) relative to what they could be because of the near universal lockdown. If you let this rip it would be 10x worse. In China they shut down a huge city because they feared the catastrophe would overwhelm their country. The Chinese are not known to be bleeding heart liberals in regard to their people so you can be certain it was a calculated, fear based decision to protect their economy and political system from being overwhelmed. In fact, new analysis suggests the morality rate could have been near 20% of confirmed cases in Wuhan.* Back to our reality, it is not as if you can just restart the economy, with a deadly virus among us and just ignore body bags piling up in the corner. It would be devastating. People may not wish to work or refuse to work or send their kids to school. If fact, under current conditions people would be pretty nuts to just go back to work. I understand the Right (Trump included) is desperate to reopen the economy and they prioritize the economy and profit over most other things - even their beloved "family values". But, it is a false choice to believe you can just reopen the economy and wish all this away. That said, some jurisdictions will try and I wish them luck. It probably won't help them...

    https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...195-X/fulltext

  30. #629

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    Quote Originally Posted by Betz
    1. Any death is a catastrophe to those it touches. But when you look at other years, then maybe, just maybe, this is not a bad as we have been led to believe.
    Look at a timeline for the flu season versus what we have experienced thus far in some 50-odd days. It is also unlikely that COVID-19 will act like the seasonally flu. There is no proof that I know that predicts that it will. It is also highly contagious. How do you suppose that someone in Idaho got the virus? They certainly were not in direct contact with someone that came from Wuhan.
    Quote Originally Posted by Betz
    2. If the news media did not do things like using photos of the same physicians and patients as a clinic in New York as another network used as a clinic in Italy, it would be easier to believe they are telling us the truth and not reading from a script.
    We have daily briefings from the WH. You don't have to trust the news media. You can watch the briefings and do your own fact checking and draw your own conclusions. The media is a not a factor in how we should behave as far as I am concerned. The science and the numbers are, however.

  31. #630

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    More than 40,000 deaths in the US in ~90 days, and increasing. We'll see what the total for a year is in about 9 months. It's already higher than flu deaths for any year, and that's with massive distancing and testing. We don't even consider that for flu. If the annual number of deaths for a year from covid-19 comes in under a hundred thousand, we will be lucky. That's a somewhat higher number than the usual flu death rate. But they're already intending to abandon distancing and open everything up, so I fear the number of deaths will be several hundred thousand. But they'll be mostly older, poor people of color, so it's an acceptable risk to many.

  32. #631

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    Quote Originally Posted by sgosnell
    More than 40,000 deaths in the US in ~90 days, and increasing.
    Just to be clear, today is only about 55 days since the first COVID-19 death in the USA. If we continue at the previously seen rates there will be another 50k+ dead in 35 more days.

  33. #632

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    Quote Originally Posted by Betz
    The CDC is estimating between 24k and 62k flu-related deaths for the 2019-2020 season. They (the CDC) include the caveat that the numbers may be skewed high due to increased testing due to COVID-19. Pretty scary, right?

    Except that the 2017-2018 season peaked with about 1,600 deaths per week in January of that year with a season estimate of 80k deaths (again, CDC numbers). The season was also unique because it crossed the traditional age barriers typically seen with influenza and took out a higher percentage of children and young adults than any previous season. Do you remember the big panic around that 2017-2018 season, how it was a daily topic on the news and how it impacted our lives? No? Neither do I.

    How about some really scary news. West Texas Intermediate is today trading at more than negative $30 per barrel. For the first time in history, producers are paying refiners to take crude off their hands. Of course, the refiners don’t want it because they can’t sell what they have. Marathon Oil closed two refineries so far, Gallup NM and Martinez CA. So not so much interest in buying excess crude.

    Think you can live without the energy infrastructure? Ready to play out that Mad Max dystopian fantasy? Better be . . .
    Where there's water there's life.

  34. #633

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    Here's the CDC's prediction chart. With no social distancing, everything back to normal, they're looking at ~350,000 deaths by the end of the first week of May. I can't see how that is acceptable. I'm afraid society would collapse. I don't see how it would be possible to deal with that many deaths, let alone the number of hospitalizations. Police forces would be decimated, or worse, This is not the seasonal flu, and no matter what the Fox talking heads may say, that scenario is not a risk that should be taken.

    COVID-19 Forecasts for the United States | CDC

  35. #634

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    it just seems like the predictions charts , grafts , models crumble as we go .

    the medical comunity doesnt know what is going on so they have to guess. and we are doing lockdown to help not overwelm medical facilities. its not to prevent the disease, because you cant. the nature of this disease is it incubates for 5 to 10 days which gives it stealth capabilities . they have to lift the lockdown eventualy, and , you are on your own to protect yourself.

    but there is plenty of evidence to suggest that the lockdown isnt working. most all the european countries in lockdown had huge death rates, the usa is horible , the one country that cant be mentioned has nothing short of spectacular results , saying blatently they did opisite of the giant health organisation who influenced the lockdown strategy. and the dna of this lockdown strategy comes from the country of origin of the virus. you can find this dna strategy in the one size fits all , no nuance based on differances of circumstances. you can find the dna in the attitude to tell on our neighbor . you can find this dna strategy in the desire to censor or surpess any talk of the country that has the spectacular results.

    "track and trace", wow the new catch phrase that they are starting to realise is the secret instead of lockdown. they have to use it when lockdown ceases and , in spite of the giddiness some people are enjoying going through the dna of the origin country, they will have to use that strategy. they should call it " the country that cant be mentioned track and trace strategy". you could shorten it to TTATS

    the people bucking for opening up everything better understand you have to do that TTATS , not just open up. but i dont hear them pushing that. so , ignorance on all sides

    they need much more nuance in the guidelines. people are doing everything for the most part to comply , in the good faith the people in charge know where they are going...but they dont...

    this confict about what we can do and cant, flooded by misinformation and statistics from sources falling apart , will start to erode that faith. while maybe there shouldnt be automatic everyone go back to work, its time to start sorting out who really is at risk for dying , they should be quarentined, and the people who had the disease and people who arnt at risk should be brought back into the market place , and how people can go about their daily lives should be severly scrutinised and thought out better so people have a shot to control their mental health

  36. #635

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    Quote Originally Posted by bonsritmos

    its time to start sorting out who really is at risk for dying
    edit: never mind. i dont wanna jinx you. but stop spreading the fake news.

    -the lockdown is working in europe.

    -taiwan did a fantastic job. but taiwan is an island with a population of 20mio, very disciplined and experienced through the sars epidemic. they also would've dealt rather swiftly with protesters like in brazil or the us.
    Last edited by djg; 04-21-2020 at 01:53 PM.

  37. #636
    Quote Originally Posted by djg
    it's people like you. old, poor. if you get the virus, your chances are slim to none. fact.
    I thought it was around 75% for milder symptoms for older adults? That's still kind of shockingly bad mortality rates of around 25%, but it's far from "slim to none", I'd think.

  38. #637

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    Quote Originally Posted by matt.guitarteacher
    I thought it was around 75% for milder symptoms for older adults? That's still kind of shockingly bad mortality rates of around 25%, but it's far from "slim to none", I'd think.
    you're right. the fake news are getting to me. yet i'm afraid in countries like brazil the mortality rate will be higher than that.

  39. #638

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    well , they try to make us think that the lockdown is working .

    but, its funny, new york city got hit so terribly hard , harder than most , and it starts to become clear, people are stacked up on each other in apartments. new york is a super dence apartment city . this virus is stealth , one person infected 30 people in his apartment complex , this was proved somewhere, besides it can travel under doors ,i know this for a fact getting sick from a very bad cold in a hotel coming from the next room, just the constant use of the virus carriar in incubation stage , of touching elevators , coughing or sneazing in the halls guarentees massive infections inside the place they tell everyone to be.

    20 percent more people get this inside than outside. in a dense apartment city situation , its easy to see how a large amount of incubators of the virus are walking around , going in their buildings , touching things, coughing around the building and infecting those who live there . then im watching the scenes as they go from each city in europe from italy, spain, france, every shot they show is people in narrow streets , with really compact apartments . this is a virus that reeks far more havic and death on larger compact apartent cities .

    and people are getting it indoors. now im not saying going out prevents you from getting it, im saying making "stay indoors" your meme , is not good for compact city dwellers in large numbers in aparments. people need to step back and make better guidelines.

    "fake news"? no , im stepping back and really checking out the truth

    or think of this, what do you really think would help health care workers more ? lockdown with the examples of wuhan, italy, spain, france, new york , with huge death tolls ? or , revamp and charge like hades for the TTATS , a very real example of how to keep the death rate down opisite of what these other countries did , track and trace backgrounds and people who have been in contact, take temperatures at airports, super markets, seriously quarentine all people and businesses with any sign of sickness, seriously quarentine people who have complications , of any age , and get the market place going and definitly set sensible guidelines for going about life , that make sence and people can have some outlit ?

    i mean, im not saying let everything be normal, im saying its time to broach the subject . i absolutly dont expect they are going to let live music venues and concerts go ahead, and i accept that, and thats closest to my survival needs . but, the heavy hand one size fits all while the thing changes in front of our eyes ? banning things that are as safe as anything out here you could be doing? its time to step back and look for the next direction.

  40. #639

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    It is not possible to have multiple sizes for something like this. One size has to fit all, at least for a country. Just because you think something is safe, does not mean that it actually is safe. Pulling numbers from one's anal orifice is not a scientific way to make a point. The lockdowns in New York, France, et al, were much too late. Trying to lock down a country after the disease is already widespread is shutting the barn door after the horse has escaped. Lockdowns have to start very early to be effective. If you don't understand this, further conversation is futile, and I won't even try any longer.

  41. #640
    Quote Originally Posted by bonsritmos
    and people are getting it indoors. now im not saying going out prevents you from getting it, im saying making "stay indoors" your meme , is not good for compact city dwellers in large numbers in aparments. people need to step back and make better guidelines.
    I think this logic works if you can magically teleport out of doors and back in, without utilizing stairwells, door handles, elevators etc. etc. Without breathing even MORE cramped "indoor air" of stairwells, hallways , elevators etc. etc.

    I think opening windows when you can and taking some LIMITED numbers of trips through common areas to go outside and exercise is probably good. But for city dwellers, these transitional spaces are among the most dangerous, I would think.

    It's pretty different the more rural you get. I'm in a pretty rural bedroom community of an urban center. It's bad in the city , but there's not much going on out here. Early on, I tended to think that it probably just hadn't gotten to us yet , but I don't really think that's the case anymore.

    Looking at the national numbers , it looks like all cities and states have doubling rates which are decreasing pretty uniformly , even though certain areas got it much earlier , and different states/cities took vastly different measures in lockdown procedures. The main pattern I can see at this point is the rural/urban pattern. States like Oklahoma and Alabama should have been hammered by now , with our lax measures. I've been waiting for it here in Alabama, but it just hasn't happened. Our doubling rate is up to about 13 or 14 days in my county. It's very similar in other locations around the country where they did much BETTER and were much EARLIER in tightening restrictions. The only logical explanation for this in my mind, is that with the lack of testing, we've just had a ton of it spread throughout the country much earlier than we thought.

    I've kind of had to backpedal my position on this thing. I now think more rural areas might need to very cautiously and gently ease up on some restrictions, understanding that hospital capacity is always the bottleneck in any location - and could be very dangerous in rural areas. But national emergency response in the US is structured around regional support, understanding that hurricane victims can be supported by states in a region unaffected, just as with earthquakes, tornadoes etc. It's impossible to do anything like that when everyone is shut down at once.

    Regardless of my beliefs about anything, in the end, there is also the human element. Things start to break down when people don't see the need for alarm. Emergency officials factor these kind of psychological elements in with how often and how early they give Tsunami warnings , hurricane warnings etc. The truth is more people die when it's too restrictive, because apathy sets in.

    That's the thing. From everything I can see, the populace has mostly lost the capacity for rational thought. I have been very concerned all along about what I thought the data was indicating, understanding that it could be worse because of how much we DON'T know. But now, to me, it's looking more like the unintended consequence of not knowing is that we seem to be much farther along nationwide than we originally thought in terms of how much spread there has already been throughout the population.

    We need to do what we can to protect the vulnerable demographics and medical workers/1st responders etc. We also need to understand this is not a binary decision. Politicians and media have tried to paint this as "lives versus dollars" or something. I don't think it has to be one or the other , and I think we have to admit that, at a certain point, we need to consider lives AND basic economic realities of life. At this point, I personally can afford to stay home and work remotely, but there are great many people who just can't do that. At a certain point, it does very much become life or death to not work.

    That point becomes more relevant when very young workers of my children's generation note that the most vulnerable age demographics can basically afford to stay home while they cannot. I don't really have a response for them on that, because I'm not in their shoes, but I think there has to be something between all or nothing.

    Sorry to bloviate, but what else is there to do? Ha! :-)

  42. #641

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    very well said , matt guitar teacher

    sgosnel , im sorry you see it that way, like there is no other possible way but the way you see it , including your bodily funtion referances. it doesnt speak well for your position , and then flat out saying one size fits all , and its too late for the country we cant name's strategy.

    this is where i totaly disagree with you . the way i said , which is their way, would have extra care attention for you and your son's situation . since you fit very much into the complications category , you would be heavily quarenteened , people kept away from you for the best chance for you not to get it. by going directly after the trouble spots , the sick people , and the people with complications ( theh ones who die when they go to the hospital) and tracing where they have been and going after those people and businesses , its going to take the preasure off the hospitals and open it up for your son, which actualy is a very important subject they are raising now .

    i absolutly dont understand why you might not consider that at all ? nor get that inside is dangerous

    how about instead of " stay inside" its " be careful inside"..., with serious guidelines ,it would be more honest

  43. #642

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    Wuhan is a good example of some success. Nobody is out of the woods yet.

    They locked down until they got 14 days of no new cases. It worked. Now, they can start to open things up and use track and trace for new cases.

    The mechanisms of the virus are partially understood, at best. That makes it hard to have a targeted strategy.

    The USA's current situation makes track and trace unworkable as a control strategy. Asymptomatic people are major spreaders and we have no way to identify them. We don't have enough tests for the general public, even to test everybody once -- and certainly not for repeat testing, which would be important.

    When enough tests are available, with a fast turnaround time, track and trace may take over.

    Meanwhile, if you have to hope for something, hope for a breakthough in treatment. There are nearly 400 studies being tracked by CDC, listed on the website.

    Opening things up in the wrong way is likely to lead to more cases and, therefore, more deaths. It happened in 1918. I can see no reason to think it won't happen here. We'll know soon enough. Average time to emergence of symptoms is around 5 days. So, some of the people who didn't sufficiently distance will get sick and a few will die. Others won't get sick but will spread disease everywhere they go. The recent LA and Santa Clara studies speak to just how contagious this virus is.



    ?

  44. #643

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    Headlines where I live today are a small immigrants facility without the possibility of social isolation, where 100% of them were found positive to the virus, and 100% are asymptomatic at the time. Some clear heads up on how fast the virus can infect people, and on how the epidemic might tragically progress in the third world.

  45. #644

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    Quote Originally Posted by bonsritmos

    besides it can travel under doors.
    more fake news. the tragedy is that you harm your own and other's chances of surviving by not properly informing yourself.

    your politicians are failing you and had to errect these strawmen like china or the WHO. certainly the WHO has made a ton of mistakes and needs to be pulled out of china's ass. and of course chinas numbers are not trustworthy. and of course taiwan did a great job. but none of that will help in any way with your personal survival. because in your country, it is far too late for testing, tracking and isolating. that ship has sailed. and herd immunity in your country is millions of deaths away from happening.

    the virus is highly contagious and cant be treated, that's what should govern your actions. there is no actual curfew in brazil so getting out in the sun is good for you. contact with other people isnt. your president still thinks it's all a big joke. you should worry about that more than about china, taiwan or the WHO. look how many of our heroes died from covid in the US. that's brazil's future like lombardy was NYC's future just 4 weeks ago.

    this pandemic is just getting started and we're not even talking about the likely second wave in autumn.

  46. #645

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    [QUOTE=bonsritmos;1026625]very well said , matt guitar teacher

    <<SNIP>> its too late for the country we cant name's strategy.<<SNIP>>

    There is no censorship here. If you want to name the country you can. If you name it then your arguments will carry more weight than if you try to make them seem more important by elliptical references.

    easy translation: If you know of a country that is doing it right then name them!

    I am in Australia, when I am not playing guitar I am a firefighter / paramedic; I will make decisions based on local evidence but everybody else has to make their own, based on local evidence and their personal ethical and moral values. From my military days I know just how easy it is to make decisions based on somebody else's sacrifice; hopefully I have grown past that.

  47. #646

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    well , i apreciete the civil diologue

    i think we are all in agreement that the virus is super contagous

    djg , i apreciete your opinion, where you could say my experiance with a cold virus coming under a door is anecdotal , its not fake. it certainly wasnt lost on me how i got that cold and it makes me beleive that the corona virus can be passed in an apartment that way . i mean the guy was sneezing and coughing all night , and i could feel the air coming in the bottom of the connecting door to our room. but, yes, anecdotal , but not fake .

    the thing about bolsolnaro is, he isnt dictating what is happening . the mayors and governers are making the policy and we are on lockdown on the verge of loosening some restrictions.

    with all the confusing statistics , from county to country to city to state , as you aluded lost boss, i can only pay attention to what is happening localy to try to figure out how dangerous its getting.it is going to get colder , more people will get sick , lets see what will happen, but i dont think brazil is going to be any worse than what is going on around the world.

    but , you are wrong about censorship, a thread i started on masks was taken down exactly when taiwan started to get mentioned, and it happened on another forum also. no, i dont have confidence i can broach this subject and not have it scrutinised and posibly taken down.

    and , to the people saying its too late to do the taiwan strategy, i disagree. they are going to stop the lockdown eventualy and the taiwan strategy is exactly what has to be done, and i dont see that happening. i dont see the people bucking to open stressing we have to do that.

    because the problem for hospitals is people with pre conditions and they are the ones dying more and that is where the strain on the health care workers is coming from.

    instead of all of us quarentined, who has to be especiay quartenteened is people with pre conditions , with extra care. how about a task force formed with government employment to bring food and medical needs to people with pre conditions in a quarentined state ? and extra guidelines for people living with people with pre conditions . this way,more attention can be given to the people who could get sick and go to the hospital. and , that extra attention on those people should keep more people out of the hospital, opening it up for people who need help that dont have the corona virus

    people without pre conditions go to the market place with social distancing rules firmly in place.

    that is part of the taiwan strategy. we need tempertures taken at all airports and supermarkets. it wont stop now with an overworked work force who has to go out now, and they will get sick and bring it back to their apartments and homes. exacty because it is too contagous. but its the people with pre conditions who are over loading the hospitals and dying more. they should be quarentined with extra help and the rest of us have to take our social distance responsibility. this is going to be what it is eventualy no matter what , until they get the vacine. we cant do lockdown that long. and i dont think its working with the death rates we are seeing...strictly my opinion..beleive me ,they arnt going to do what i want them to do anyway, so dont worry

  48. #647

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    Here's a site with a lot of information regarding numbers, age, etc, about the epidemic in various countries.

    Coronavirus Update (Live): 2,580,630 Cases and 179,069 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

  49. #648

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    Quote Originally Posted by bonsritmos
    but , you are wrong about censorship, a thread i started on masks was taken down exactly when taiwan started to get mentioned, and it happened on another forum also. no, i dont have confidence i can broach this subject and not have it scrutinised and posibly taken down.
    nonsense. the owner of this site is from belgium. he has a name and a face. he simply wants his forum free of politics.

    i've had posts of mine deleted in the past and usually it was justified or at least acceptable, in fact if anything he has shown more leniency than usual towards opinionated arseholes like myself.

  50. #649

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    There is so much we don't know about this disease. But for those who think that social distancing "isn't working" or that it is "too late", I would ask how do you know? Do you know what it would have been like if we hadn't taken these measures? What is the evidence behind your thinking?

    One useful statistic is to compare this year's flu to last year. Last year the cases were at their peak in week 8 of 2019 and still going strong at over 1,000 cases a week by week 15. This year also saw its peak about week 8, about when most US citizens began quarantine. By week 15 there were less than 30 cases.

    Is that conclusive proof? Perhaps not. But one could reasonably take the data to mean that the lockdowns have worked for the flu, despite starting well after the disease had already established itself. It is reasonable to assume that it has had a similar effect on COVID-19.

    Despite the most draconian quarantine measures the nation has ever seen, we are seeing 145,000 new cases of COVID-19 in the US this week compared to 30 reported cases of the flu. If we are to assume that the data shows social distancing orders have cut the flu down 97%, and that COVID-19 has been impacted similarly, that would imply that nearly 4.8 million people would have been infected by COVID-19 this week without social distancing.

    Can we know that social distancing is responsible for a 97% drop in the flu? No, of course not. Can we know that COVID-19 would have been 33 times worse without social distancing. We can't know that either. But if you are going to use the flu to argue that social distancing isn't working, then really look at the numbers.

    The numbers tell us that COVID-19 is MUCH more contagious and MUCH more deadly than the flu. Despite unheard of precautions it continues to spread. Precautions that appear to have halted this year's flu in its tracks. The available evidence, from the flu no less, is that forced quarantine orders have prevented a tragedy of unimaginable impact on life, and the economy, that might have been felt for a generation.

  51. #650

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    djg , beleive me, nothing against the owners desician , i respect his forum here and i also wrote the other forum politley and the owner answered politley and said there were four moderators and he didnt have anything to do with it, and im not there to argue with their desicians at all. i also had another thread pulled down here , it probably did cross a political line , i could debate it , but i have no desire to make waves on here.

    what i think is notable is how, this subject is pulled down in several situations i saw personaly , and in the high up official places that follow the china ccp strategy , you cant mention taiwan also

    see , im not saying this blog censors, the owner made his desician, but, china censors and does propaganda , that has had influence on desicians high up as well as into regular life. for sure each forum owner represents their own political point of view and what they deem too sensitive for their forum. but , its isnt rude talk , insults , selling something in this case, it is true what happened to taiwan with china

    its all hindsight, how do we know if the lockdown is the best way or not, i can totaly aquiese to that, but, they are going to lift the lockdown eventualy, and that is where i really hope they enact an agresive isolate the sick and those around them and isolate the people with pre conditions , and the rest of us use social distance, masks , good common sence , walks in the sun ...and get the market going .